ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#41 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:51 pm

Very tough to tell (it's night) but there appears to be some type of circulation near or under the NE side of the convection. Definitely on its way IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#42 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:14 am

AtlanticWind wrote:The hostile conditions that the NHC mentions,is that just the sale or is shear also forecast to increase?

It's forecast to increase during the next 24-36 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#43 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:57 am

Wow, look at the impressive explosion of convection in this early pre-dawn this morning as 96L really looks good now. This is by far the most impressive convection I have seen yet with this system. It appears that the system obviously has found much better conditions and at the moment, looks as if it has insulated itself quite well against any impacts from SAL..

Looking at the current trends, this is well on its way to become Emily, although I think it may already be Emily as of right now! Also, the system is beginning to look more and more symmetric as the anticyclone it is under is really showing its influence currently. We shall see, but as of now, this system has really flexed its muscle now!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#44 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:21 am

northjaxpro wrote:Wow, look at the impressive explosion of convection in this early pre-dawn this morning as 96L really looks good now. This is by far the most impressive convection I have seen yet with this system. It appears that the system obviously has found much better conditions and at the moment, looks as if it has insulated itself quite well against any impacts from SAL..

Looking at the current trends, this is well on its way to become Emily, although I think it may already be Emily as of right now! Also, the system is beginning to look more and more symmetric as the anticyclone it is under is really showing its influence currently. We shall see, but as of now, this system has really flexed its muscle now!



Looking at night time visible I'd estimate the broad LLC near 12.2/40.8

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#45 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:25 am

:uarrow: Yes, that estimate is about right.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#46 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:39 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Wow, look at the impressive explosion of convection in this early pre-dawn this morning as 96L really looks good now. This is by far the most impressive convection I have seen yet with this system. It appears that the system obviously has found much better conditions and at the moment, looks as if it has insulated itself quite well against any impacts from SAL..

Looking at the current trends, this is well on its way to become Emily, although I think it may already be Emily as of right now! Also, the system is beginning to look more and more symmetric as the anticyclone it is under is really showing its influence currently. We shall see, but as of now, this system has really flexed its muscle now!



Looking at night time visible I'd estimate the broad LLC near 12.2/40.8

Image


Agreed though there is nothing broad about it. A well defined llc has been tracked and is not an issue.. the convection needs to persist.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#47 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:43 am

I agree Aric. I also think this is a well established circulation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#48 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:15 am

Image

I was thinking this might develop a few days ago but I think it's running out of time given the dry air surrounding it. Convection looks quite disorganized at this point, and latest ASCAT shows the circulation actually becoming elongated SW-NE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#49 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:39 am

This has a lot of potential.
1) Already, a well established warm core.
2) Tons of organizining LL Moisture
3) Ahead of it, decent moist air with good lapse rate to mid level. Some dry air above that. Little to no directional shear.

Image

Image


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#50 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:02 am

:uarrow:

Good analysis. I would have to believe NHC will have Recon fly out to 96L soon if the trends you and I have pointed out in earlier posts on this page continues.

Also, latest satellite imagery is beginning to show banding and solid inflow into the well defined LLC, so this cyclone is definitely in the process of getting its act together this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#51 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:33 am

The NHC must be picking up on something we aren't, because they give this a 30/30
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#52 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:42 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next day or
two while it moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at
10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#53 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:02 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Good analysis. I would have to believe NHC will have Recon fly out to 96L soon if the trends you and I have pointed out in earlier posts on this page continues.

Also, latest satellite imagery is beginning to show banding and solid inflow into the well defined LLC, so this cyclone is definitely in the process of getting its act together this morning.


Much thanks!
Another hot-tower fired off at dawn with a good cirrus canopy spreading out afterwards.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#54 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:41 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Good analysis. I would have to believe NHC will have Recon fly out to 96L soon if the trends you and I have pointed out in earlier posts on this page continues.

Also, latest satellite imagery is beginning to show banding and solid inflow into the well defined LLC, so this cyclone is definitely in the process of getting its act together this morning.

Don't they fly recon only after systems pass 50W? Or do they fly a drone (the Global Hawk) farther out?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#55 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:19 am

I don't know what some of you are seeing, all I'm seeing is a struggling invest producing disorganized storms trying to stay alive.

Image

There is plentiful of SAL to it's North, East, and West which should eventually sooner rather than later get entrained into 96L killing it off completely.

Image

If that wasn't enough for it there is wind shear which should be on the increase over the next few days. For now though it is under or near an anti-cyclone.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#56 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:17 am

Has 96L been deactivated?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#57 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:52 am

Nice large well defined Circ. Convection has collapse around the center again but it still needs to be watched and has a decent shot if it can keep producing the pulses of convection to keep the circ going.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#58 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Nice large well defined Circ. Convection has collapse around the center again but it still needs to be watched and has a decent shot if it can keep producing the pulses of convection to keep the circ going.



11.9N 45.5W
Seems to be firing back up.
Based on tracking the previous tower this morning, its running due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#59 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:03 pm

GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Nice large well defined Circ. Convection has collapse around the center again but it still needs to be watched and has a decent shot if it can keep producing the pulses of convection to keep the circ going.



11.9N 45.5W
Seems to be firing back up.
Based on tracking the previous tower this morning, its running due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html



yeah a little blob is there, unfortunately, its associated with the vigorous mid level circ the low leve circ is well to the NE of that. Have to wait and see if convection builds north around the center again
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#60 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:13 pm

These waves all developed persistent convection near -50W so another TD/ minimal storm is likely.
Doesn't bother me if they fizzle and head for the Pacific after that.
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