ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 19, 2017 12:30 pm

Is over.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#62 Postby otowntiger » Wed Jul 19, 2017 1:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is over.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Beven
and there you have it. I just can't see how this thing ever had a whole lot of a chance given the massive SAL all around it and never had much in the way of model support. Even Bastardi was pessimistic about it's chances, lol!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#63 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:50 pm

SAL for the time being is killing these cyclones. Good thing though or else we would be potentially discussing much other greater concerns for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#64 Postby znel52 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:10 pm

It's really not looking all that bad at the moment. Had a nice flare up of convection but I doubt it will last.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#65 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:12 pm

znel52 wrote:It's really not looking all that bad at the moment. Had a nice flare up of convection but I doubt it will last.


Not looking all that bad.. that convection needs to expand more and maintain for a good 12 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#66 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:47 pm

Agree Eric,

If it can continue to produce the convection and not start moving to fast to the west, there is a chance. On a side note the ULL that has been parked NE of the Bahamas forever is it ever going to move or dissipate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#67 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:46 pm

Let me remind everyone it is still mid July, one of the most UNfavorable times of the season looking at climatology. It should be dead right about now. See what the SAL looks like mid August (and these waves)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#68 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:47 pm

Nothing is going to come out of Invest 96L, it's going to be dropped by the NHC totally very soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#69 Postby stormreader » Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is over.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated low pressure area located about midway between the Cabo
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is moving into a drier and
more stable air mass, and the associated shower activity is
decreasing. Little or no development is likely to occur as the
system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Beven

It's better this way. No sense wasting a good name like Emily on something that had no future. Maybe everyone can save their energy and analysis for something a little more significant.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#70 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:11 pm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
96L is no more.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#71 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:09 pm

Weather150 wrote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
NNNN
96L is no more.

Man, they really issued that Outlook early! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#72 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:43 am

convection has built over the center that was present yesterday. this is by no means dead yet. yeah it has a lot against it but clearly its hanging on. the circ has been more well defined that DON ever was.. never count the tropics out. ...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#73 Postby panamatropicwatch » Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:41 am

I see the convection this morning but it looks like it is about to run into a buzz saw of shear. 8-)
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Former 96L

#74 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:09 am

Good Morning,

I know that this is no longer an invest. But flaring up very nicely this morning, if it can maintain enough convection until it nears the Bahamas, there it may have a window.
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Re: Former 96L

#75 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:04 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Good Morning,

I know that this is no longer an invest. But flaring up very nicely this morning, if it can maintain enough convection until it nears the Bahamas, there it may have a window.


This system has done this consistently with the convective flare-ups throughout its life span. The SAL is too much out there right now. I agree that the current convective burst is impressive. I will keep a wary eye on this area, just to see if regeneration can occur, but that is not likely. But, never say NEVER to any of these systems in the tropics.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#76 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:14 am

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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#77 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:22 am

eX 96L can be seen in the water vapor loops quite clearly.
The TUTS are currently changing the upper air pattern to a less sheared environment short term.

Big trough just dropped south through Florida and that would likely steer or shear anything the models develop later.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#78 Postby Weather150 » Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:37 am

Image
Look at that shear racing ahead of it , I don't think so. Nothing will come out of it.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#79 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:55 pm

Will the ULL NE of the Bahamas ever move out. It seems like a permanent fixture been sitting there spinning forever.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#80 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:11 pm

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