WPAC: INVEST 91W

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cycloneye
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WPAC: INVEST 91W

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:05 pm

And yet another WPAC Invest.

91W INVEST 170722 1200 7.0N 137.0E WPAC 15

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 91W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:21 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4N
135.5E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230056Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF TROUGHING WITH VERY BROAD LOW LEVEL TURNING.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
FAIR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KT), AND WARM
SSTS (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT ARE
DIVIDED AS TO WHETHER IT WILL CONSOLIDATE. ECMWF, UKMET, AND GFS
SHOW THE DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH INVEST 99W BEFORE MOVING TO THE
NORTH AND CONSOLIDATING, WHILE GSM AND NAVGEM SHOW NO CONSOLIDATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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