ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#1 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:28 pm

thoughts and predictions...
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:38 pm

Model runs only.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:39 pm

Location: 10.2°N 36.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:45 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:50 pm

Maybe the models start picking up on this instead of the wave behind because this one looks like it's a go to me
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:50 pm

Not suprised,looking better tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:54 pm

SAL should kill this thing off before it gets going, correct?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:55 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 27, 2017 10:59 pm


Looks pretty good to me but could fizzle after dmax
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:01 pm

I wonder if the models start to pick up on this seeing now it has something to track although weak instead of the wave behind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:11 pm

GFS says nothing to see, move along
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:19 pm

Kind of surprised but also don't understand why it's an invest with no model support
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:23 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Kind of surprised but also don't understand why it's an invest with no model support


it's up to the forecaster on duty at NHC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:25 pm

In all honesty I don't think the models have been that good so far this season. Yes one or two did get a storms development right but as of recently they've been back and forth with development or not. Not to mention that HUGE bust the former GFS had earlier this month. Even with the just recent GFS and Euro upgrades I'm not sure if they are performing any better yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:26 pm

Alyono wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Kind of surprised but also don't understand why it's an invest with no model support


it's up to the forecaster on duty at NHC


Okay, thought a system needed model support first but live and learn
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:56 pm

Most likely won't survive the SAL surging right behind it, nothing really major.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#17 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:18 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Kind of surprised but also don't understand why it's an invest with no model support

CMC has shown development
Euro has shown some development on and off,so has UKMET
Has had some ensemble support.

So there is enough for an invest,it's not like there declaring it a tropical storm or anything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:37 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Kind of surprised but also don't understand why it's an invest with no model support


it's up to the forecaster on duty at NHC


Okay, thought a system needed model support first but live and learn


Also we sometimes become too enthralled with the models and ignore current trends and conditions. They're just one of many tools that should be used. Vorticity has improved in this area over the past 48 hours. Shear is not particularly strong currently. While models show SAL potentially being an issue later in the forecast period, it is not currently a major inhibiting factor. There is enough there to at least warrant invest status imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#19 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:33 am

Euro really likes next wave after 97L.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=71
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:59 am

TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N34W to
broad low pressure of 1012 mb at 10N34W and to 06N34W, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
09N-12N between 32W-38W. Both satellite imagery and the total
precipitable water (TPW) imagery animation both reveal that
moisture has increased within the surrounding environment of the
this system, and seems to have overtaken most of the Saharan dust
that has been present over its northern portion the past several
days. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within
45 nm of 12N34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
line from 12N34W to 11N37W.
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