ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

All past storm threads will be archived here by year.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2189
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#21 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:04 am

Convection has fallen off but its got a really sexy spin to it! :cheesy:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#22 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:30 am

The sunset frames on Thursday showed an exposed center that was obviously invest worthy.
Will it persist is the question.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112676
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:48 am

Is over.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers in the central tropical Atlantic have
decreased since yesterday. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while
the system moves slowly westward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1390
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#24 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:19 am

Will this hold the record as the shortest invest?
1 likes   

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1520
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#25 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:37 am

SAL has really finished off storms these past few years, it's almost annoying.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20435
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#26 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:43 am

Speaking of the UKMET it has gotten more bullish as of 00Z:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 895
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#27 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:18 am

For the average storm watcher 20 years ago, SAL data was not readily available. Promising looking waves usually "poofed" before Aug 15th because of climatology. It was a simpler time...
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20435
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#28 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:24 am

Latest image of SAL. That is quite a SAL surge rolling off Africa and clearly impacting this invest:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5178
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#29 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:38 am

I know someone said that this season is featuring the least amount of SAL since 2005, but I find that hard to believe since basically every development opportunity so far this season in the past month or so has been ruined by the pesky SAL outbreaks. Not saying this should be like 2005 in any way but we were able to have two majors in the MDR that July so obviously you'd think SAL had to have been extremely less present. Also is this normal for almost August to still be seeing these big SAL surges rolling off Africa still?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3097
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#30 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:07 am

TheStormExpert wrote:I know someone said that this season is featuring the least amount of SAL since 2005, but I find that hard to believe since basically every development opportunity so far this season in the past month or so has been ruined by the pesky SAL outbreaks. Not saying this should be like 2005 in any way but we were able to have two majors in the MDR that July so obviously you'd think SAL had to have been extremely less present. Also is this normal for almost August to still be seeing these big SAL surges rolling off Africa still?

what i been hearing from weatherman i know this sal will get weaker as we move into aug will take time july know for sal i do remember one season when sal run into aug let see w3hat happen we dont have good models for sal yet
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1362
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#31 Postby otowntiger » Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:02 am

gatorcane wrote:Latest image of SAL. That is quite a SAL surge rolling off Africa and clearly impacting this invest:
https://s1.postimg.org/9jc3c3plb/split_EW.jpg
and apparently many to come. Wow, that's a lot of dry, sandy air.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 13588
Age: 55
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#32 Postby tolakram » Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:19 am

I think the actual answer is ...

no, that's a normal occurrence for this time of year. I realize people have hard time believing it but there's a very good reason the Cape Verde season usually does not get going until mid August. It's not for lack of waves, it's water temps and dust.

This is getting to be a stuck record in about every Atlantic thread. Remember, just because something happened in ____ does not mean the same will happen this year.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17928
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#33 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:36 am

I went back and looked at some of my late July/early August presentations where I had SAL images (below). I've noticed that this year's SAL is a bit less than recent years. It's normal to have a significant SAL in July. Remember a few years ago we had a giant SAL outbreak in August?

As for this disturbance, it still looks like the models are developing the disturbance that is currently moving off the west coast of Africa. You can follow the vorticity and moisture westward to around 35W on Monday, the current location of this wave. That's where/when the Canadian develops a low. I don't think this wave will remain stationary over the weekend.

Image
8 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20435
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#34 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:05 am

Awesome graphics Wxman57 thanks! :uarrow:
1 likes   

Weather150
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 186
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#35 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:23 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281719
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes   

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 730
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Miami, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#36 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:24 pm

Afternoon all,

Just a guesstimate but on the visible the low appears to be at about 11.5 and 33 but at the present time I don't see much in the way of storms developing around it.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3226
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#37 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:04 pm

Okay, this is mighty interesting. It's totally vanished from the TWO. So, is it still an invest? If it is, I don't recall that ever happening. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17928
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#38 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:39 pm

abajan wrote:Okay, this is mighty interesting. It's totally vanished from the TWO. So, is it still an invest? If it is, I don't recall that ever happening. :lol:


An invest can exist without any development potential.
1 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3226
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#39 Postby abajan » Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
abajan wrote:Okay, this is mighty interesting. It's totally vanished from the TWO. So, is it still an invest? If it is, I don't recall that ever happening. :lol:


An invest can exist without any development potential.

Yes, I know that can happen in theory. But can you recall the last time there was nothing stated in the TWO about an existing invest?
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#40 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:36 pm

Weird how they put the invest up before the morning visible imagery indicated a poof.
The cloud pattern at sunset yesterday was a classic strong wave that looked like it might overcome SAL.
I would leave the floater on it till -50w to see if it starts picking up convection.
Models can just run it into the Caribbean for now.
0 likes   


Return to “Storm Archives”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest