ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#41 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:34 pm

As long a the SAL is very heavy and wide spread I do not see much of anything getting going. The only chance is a weak wave moves west away from it and maybe has a chance closer to western Atlantic Carib or Gulf. Obviously a few weeks from now maybe a totally different story.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#42 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:46 pm

Somehow despite the SAL and lack of convection 850MB vort is increasing.

You can see the broad vorticity (with embedded small vort) clearly here on this floater loop right around 10N, 32W which looks mostly stationary. Technically I don't think it is 97L but it is just to the east so I guess close enough:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#43 Postby gatorcane » Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:47 pm

UKMET just doesn't want to lay down on this system. Even more bullish on the 12Z run. It's like it is not getting any input on the SAL:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#44 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:55 pm

Gator,

I have not seen any real convection build up since watching it this morning. Is it possible to get a stronger vort and good cyclonic spin and still lack the convection to get it going.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#45 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 28, 2017 4:31 pm

gatorcane wrote:Somehow despite the SAL and lack of convection 850MB vort is increasing.

You can see the broad vorticity (with embedded small vort) clearly here on this floater loop right around 10N, 32W which looks mostly stationary. Technically I don't think it is 97L but it is just to the east so I guess close enough:
Image

Image


The eddy near -33W isn't going to be in favorable conditions for a while yet thats why the area further west was favored for development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#46 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:30 pm

tolakram wrote:I think the actual answer is ...

no, that's a normal occurrence for this time of year. I realize people have hard time believing it but there's a very good reason the Cape Verde season usually does not get going until mid August. It's not for lack of waves, it's water temps and dust.

This is getting to be a stuck record in about every Atlantic thread. Remember, just because something happened in ____ does not mean the same will happen this year.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori



Well stated. And I would like to add besides seasonality, the conditions west of the Windward/Leeward Islands have not yet begun to become more favorable for intensification or development. In two weeks? BOHICA. :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#47 Postby Nimbus » Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:28 pm

So far this year we have had several storms from this area Don being the last July 17th.
The SAL appears to be thinning a little ahead of 97L but only time will tell if it develops.
NHC was giving it a 30% chance over 5 days and the other storms picked up steam west of -45W so still a possibility. Maybe the models are keying off the last wave that fizzled out due to stable air?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atla ... ane_season
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#48 Postby USTropics » Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:53 pm

It appears 97L has been deactivated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#49 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:46 am

Another one bites the dust (the SAL, that is, no pun intended)
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