CPAC: INVEST 90C

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Kingarabian
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CPAC: INVEST 90C

#1 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:40 am

Models on and off. May become a tropical storm.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:46 pm

The latest F-16 pass doesn't look too bad.

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:50 pm

:uarrow: Yeah , like 91C, 90C also looks like a TD. Yet the CPHC is saying there likely won't be two separate entities and 91C and 90C will merge.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow: Yeah , like 91C, 90C also looks like a TD. Yet the CPHC is saying there likely won't be two separate entities and 91C and 90C will merge.

To be fair, that's what most of the guidance solutions are showing too. Considering their proximity to each other in the monsoon trough, it is an outcome that makes sense. It certainly looks pretty good right now, but a sloppy merger between two almost-systems could set everything back.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:38 am

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM HST Tue Aug 15 2017
For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a broad area of low pressure around 860 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Houston
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:12 pm

Still has work to do. But based off this recent ASCAT, it looks like the circulation is well defined:

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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:31 pm

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii have become slightly better organized overnight.
Environmental conditions appear to remain conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few
days as it drifts toward the west-northwest. If the recent
trend of improved organization persists, a tropical
depression could form in this area later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:38 pm

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
flared overnight but remain poorly organized this morning.
Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for
additional development of this system for the next couple of days as
it drifts toward the west-northwest. After a couple of days,
conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:43 pm

Has a chance in theory but with little model support, I'm not holding my hopes up. Chances of development are around 50/50 IMO.
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP902017 08/17/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 32 29 26 24 21
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 32 29 26 24 23
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 27 25 23 20 17 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 15 11 5 3 5 13 22 29 32 37 38 43
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 -5 -4 -4 -6 -2 -2 -1 -3
SHEAR DIR 30 52 61 54 358 255 262 244 250 237 233 223 227
SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 138 136 131 128 125 125 128 128 130 133
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9
700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 51 50 52 50 50 45 43 40 39 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 45 41 39 34 14 9 -7 3 11 29 17
200 MB DIV 28 24 43 31 9 19 15 -2 -2 10 0 12 29
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 1 0 2 1 3 -1 4 7 3
LAND (KM) 1272 1250 1242 1228 1211 1140 1010 841 632 411 204 24 74
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.9
LONG(DEG W) 144.7 144.8 144.7 144.6 144.5 144.8 145.7 147.1 149.0 151.1 153.1 154.9 156.8
STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 5 5 5 8 9 10 10 9 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 17 17 14 11 8 5 2 1 1 1 4 5 14

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -15. -18. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -4.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 144.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX CP902017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 -0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 6.3% 3.8% 2.1% 1.3% 4.3% 1.1% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 6.5% 4.7% 0.7% 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902017 INVEST 08/17/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:45 pm

Maybe we should merge 91C with this thread since that's what the CPHC is doing between the two systems. Could argue that it's already a depression.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Maybe we should merge 91C with this thread since that's what the CPHC is doing between the two systems. Could argue that it's already a depression.


There's not enough organization for me to say it's a depression. It looked better this morning.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:58 pm

TXPN42 PHFO 171804
TCSNP2

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1805 UTC THU AUG 17 2017

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90C (SE OF HAWAII) CP902017.

B. 17/1730Z.

C. 13.4N.

D. 144.7W.

E. GOES15.

F. TXX/XX/XX.

G. VIS/IR/EIR.

H. Remarks: THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. PREVIOUS FIX WILL BE REANALYZED.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NONE.

$$

POWELL.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 90C

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:12 pm

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Thu Aug 17 2017

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure less than 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
have diminished dramatically since this morning. At best,
environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for
development of this system over the next day or so as it drifts
toward the west-northwest. After a couple of days,
conditions become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next
5 days.

Forecaster Powell
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