BOB: INVEST 99B

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Imran_doomhaMwx
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BOB: INVEST 99B

#1 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:58 am

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7N 79.5E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM NNW OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 300909Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALED DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 99B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LEADING TO HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH SRI LANKA AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT IS DISADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE DISTURBANCE AT THE MOMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION PERSISTING, BUT DEPICT IT FALLING APART OR ONLY WEAKLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE WINDS AT THE END OF THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD, 4-5 DAYS, DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: BOB: INVEST 99B

#2 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:07 am

99B INVEST 171101 0600 9.9N 82.0E IO 15 1008

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 79.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 81.6E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM NE OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 99B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LEADING TO HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH SRI LANKA AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT IS DISADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE DISTURBANCE AT THE MOMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT. SOME MODELS SHOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SEVERAL DAYS AND SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. OTHER MODELS MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION FOR SEVERAL DAYS IVO SRI LANKA, BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY THE DISTURBANCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: BOB: INVEST 99B

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:28 am

With 99B remaining in this same general area during the next several days, heavy rainfall could be a real problem to parts of SE India and Sri Lanka..

According to news reports, heavy rainfall from this disturbance together with the NE Monsoon are already causing trouble to the residents of India's Tamil Nadu state...
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-fi ... du-2556801
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Re: BOB: INVEST 99B

#4 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:13 pm

99B INVEST 171101 1800 10.7N 82.0E IO 15 1010

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1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 79.5E IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
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