SIO: 99S - Invest

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

SIO: 99S - Invest

#1 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:05 am

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 150645.jpg

Another invest that's been basically ignored by the agencies.
0 likes   

User avatar
WAcyclone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 349
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: SIO: 99S - Invest

#2 Postby WAcyclone » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:05 am

Looks like this is already a TC...

Image

Very impressive microwave structure:

Image


From the JTWC:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
99S AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: SIO: 99S - Invest

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:11 am

Appears to be already near or at minimal Tropical Storm intensity based on recent ASCAT passes today.

ImageImage
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... Bds175.png

Not much time left for the system to significantly strengthen though, as models show it moving into northern Mozambique within the next 12hrs or so.
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: SIO: 99S - Invest

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:22 am

Should have been at least a Tropical Storm
Nice structure
Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: 99S - Invest

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:14 pm

WTIO21 FMEE 160024 CCA
FIX ............... ..............
METEO-FRANCE / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE MEETING
BMS MARINE ON 16/01/2018 At 0000 UTC.
NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS OVER 10 MINUTES IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY EXCEED ABOUT 40. VALUE OF WIND
WAY).
MINIMUM PRESSURE AT THE LEVEL OF THE SEA IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE VALUE)
WARNING
START OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 0000 UTC.
PHENOMENON: DEPRESSION ON EARTH 4 1001 HPA
POSITION: IN A RADIUS OF 20 MN AROUND POINT 15.4 S / 40.4 E
(FIFTEEN DEGREES FOUR SOUTH AND FORTY DEGREES FOUR EAST) TO 0000 UTC
DISPLACEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
AREAS THREATENED:
GRAIN TIME WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONARY 25KT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER GRAINS.
FORECAST: INTENDED POSITION AND INTENSITY:
AT 12H FOR 16/01/2018 AT 12 UTC:
14.9 S / 39.5 E, WIND MAX = 20 KT, LOW PRESSURE
AT 24H FOR 17/01/2018 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DEPRESSION ON EARTH
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY RSMC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests