BOB /Arabian Sea 90B

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Digital-TC-Chaser

BOB /Arabian Sea 90B

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:12 am

WTIN20 DEMS 110643


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.03.2018

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC OF 11.03.2018 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.03.2018.



BAY OF BENGAL:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH SRI LANKA AT 0300
UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH MARCH, 2018. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HRS OVER
THE COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. IT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA
DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HRS.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:

24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS

NIL


LOW


MODERATE





REMARKS:

ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH SRILANKA, EXTREME SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN EQUATOR & LATITUDE
7.00N AND LONGITUDE 79.00E & 85.00E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29-30\U02DAC, OCEAN THERMAL
ENERGY IS ABOUT 50 KJ/CM2 OVER COMORIN AREA AND MORE THAN
100 KJ/CM2 OVER MANY PARTS OF LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE & UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE 10X10-5 S-1 & 20X10-5 S-1 RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOW PRESSURE AREA ADJACENT TO EQUATOR.
VORTICITY IS 50X10-6 S-1 OVER THE SAME REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE REGION AND LOW OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES
ALONG LATITUDE 10.00N NEAR LONG. 800E. IT IS FAVOURING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND HENCE INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE
UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INITIALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
COMORIN AREA AND EMERGE INTO LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 72 HRS. THUS, THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE FURTHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMTERS
LIKE SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER
24 HRS. HENCE, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARDS & THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME
WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HRS. IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING SUBSEQUENT
24 HRS

THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER BASED ON IMD GFS MODEL SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION BY 13TH MARCH OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.
THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM
UPTO DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION TILL 13TH MARCH AND WEAKENING
TREND THEREAFTER.



Image
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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: BOB /Arabian Sea 90B

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:41 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZMAR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.7N
81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CENTRALLY
LOCATED OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Imran_doomhaMwx
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Re: BOB /Arabian Sea 90B

#3 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:30 am

90B INVEST 180312 0600 3.1N 78.9E IO 15 1007

Image

IMD:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 12.03.2018 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 12.03.2018.

YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA (LPA) OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL & SOUTH SRI LANKA ORGANISED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA (WML) OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING COMORIN AREA,
SOUTH SRILANKA & SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AT 1200 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 11TH MARCH,
2018. AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 12TH MARCH 2018, IT LIES AS A WML OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN
OCEAN AND ADJOINING SOUTH SRILANKA & MALDIVES-COMORIN AREA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE INITIALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (MALDIVES AREA) DURING NEXT 36 HRS.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS
24 HOURS - LOW
24-48 HOURS - MODERATE
48-72 HOURS - HIGH

REMARKS:
AS PER THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, VORTEX IS CENTERED NEAR 3.50N/77.00E AND
THE INTENSITY IS T1.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER AREA BETWEEN EQUATOR & LATITUDE 8.00N
AND LONGITUDE 72.00E & 83.00E.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 28-29˚C, OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT
50 KJ/CM2 OVER COMORIN AREA AND MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2 OVER MANY PARTS OF
LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
10x10-5 S-1 IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR OF WML. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED
DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS ABOUT 30x10-5 S-1 IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF WML. THE
VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS & IS ABOUT 60-70 x10-6 S-1 OVER THE SAME
REGION. VORTICITY FIELD IS EXTENDING UPTO MID TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL AND IS ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE REGION
AND LOW OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN SHEAR TENDENCY DURING PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE REGION. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG LATITUDE 10.00N NEAR LONG. 800E. IT IS FAVOURING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HENCE INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INITIALLY WESTNORTHWESTWARDS
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS. THUS, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE
FURTHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMTERS LIKE SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HRS. HENCE, THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE INITIALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS & THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION
OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (MALDIVES AREA) DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER BASED ON IMD GFS MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
INTENSIFICATION BY 13TH MARCH OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF
THE SYSTEM UPTO DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION TILL 14TH MARCH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AFTER 15TH MARCH.
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Re: BOB /Arabian Sea 90B

#4 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:31 am

Depression by IMD for about 24hrs now.

Image
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 14.03.2018 BASED ON
0300 UTC OF 14.03.2018.

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF ABOUT 14 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 HRS UTC OF 14TH
MARCH 2018 OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 7.5º N AND LONGITUDE 74.0º E,
ABOUT 130 KM SOUTHEAST OF MINICOY (43369), 340 KM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF
THIRUVANATHAPURAM(43372) AND 380 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MALE (MALDIVES) (43555). IT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS AND MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO
DEEP DEPRESSION. IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EAST-CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AFTER 24HOURS.
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