WPAC: INVEST 96W

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euro6208
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WPAC: INVEST 96W

#1 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 01, 2018 4:46 pm

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N
168.5E, APPROXIMATELY 63 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVERLYING CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. A 010426Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE CAPTURES THE SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE LOW-LEVEL
BANDING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM APPROXIMATELY 60NM AWAY SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, AND A PRESSURE DROP OF 2MB
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST
96W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GENERAL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING
CONVECTION, THOUGH IT IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN
INTERACTION WITH A CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND EVENTUAL
INTENSIFICATION SEVERAL DAYS LATER, WHILE OTHERS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE
CIRCULATION OR DEVELOP INVEST 96W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Tue May 01, 2018 4:53 pm

GFS deeps it to 990mb recuves while EURO only moves a strong disturbance westward to the Marianas.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 02, 2018 12:48 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 67
NM WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LIMITED DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER BROAD CYCLONIC
INFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED MESOVORTEX. A 012218Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURES THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, AND INDICATED
ONLY ONE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS FROM
APPROXIMATELY 60NM AWAY SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS STRUGGLING TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION, AND MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WHICH IS DISPLACING CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN INTERACTION WITH
A CIRCULATION TO THE WEST ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
TROUGHING, AND EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION SEVERAL DAYS LATER, WHILE
OTHERS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OR DEVELOP INVEST 96W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 02, 2018 6:41 pm

Location: 8.8°N 164.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 03, 2018 3:19 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 168.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 164.1E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM WEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SPARSE CONVECTION ABOVE AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LLC. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
(5-10KTS) VWS. SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-29C) AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN INTERACTION WITH
A CIRCULATION TO THE WEST ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL AREA OF
TROUGHING, AND EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION SEVERAL DAYS LATER, WHILE
OTHERS DO NOT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OR DEVELOP INVEST 96W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 03, 2018 9:10 am

96W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC May 03, 2018:

Location: 9.8°N 162.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 03, 2018 9:28 am

No model support from GFS and EURO...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 03, 2018 7:31 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 164.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 162.4E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED LLC WITH SOME ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. VWS REMAINS FAVORABLE (10-15KTS) BUT
INCREASES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29C) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT 96W WILL BE WASHED OUT OR BEING ABSORBED AFTER INTERACTION WITH
97W AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 96W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 04, 2018 6:31 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 162.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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