ATL Invest 91L: Models

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jaguars_22
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#81 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:58 pm

If it were to verify what would the winds be... with 1003 pressure... i know its the NAM but :)
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#82 Postby wxman22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:59 pm

NAM shows most of the moisture on the east side of the system fwiw, producing what looks to be feeder bands across Southeast Texas and Southcentral Texas.

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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#83 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:47 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:If it were to verify what would the winds be... with 1003 pressure... i know its the NAM but :)


Run lower dynamics and look at 10 meters. Shows some gales north and east of the center offshore. So 30’s/40’s and maybe some gusts into the low 50’s well offshore in the storms. I don’t know what the generic conversion is from 33 feet to sea level. It’s probably 15-20%?
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#84 Postby EasyTiger » Thu Jun 14, 2018 5:25 pm

I'm not sure what's better; having a crazy girlfriend or following invests. I'm beginning to think I'll take a solo night at the bar instead.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#85 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:07 pm

A few of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are forecasting some really high rainfall totals for South Texas. They seem to slow down the disturbance as it approaches the NE Mexican/South Texas Coast. For what is worth the ICON has also been showing this for the past few run, just something to keep an eye out.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#86 Postby stormreader » Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:49 pm

Rgv20 wrote:A few of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are forecasting some really high rainfall totals for South Texas. They seem to slow down the disturbance as it approaches the NE Mexican/South Texas Coast. For what is worth the ICON has also been showing this for the past few run, just something to keep an eye out.


Yeah, let’s hope for a lot of rain, but not flooding rains. Right now model forecasts of 8-10 inches are very significant totals. And I have seen some hope for those rains. My best guess is that south Texas will be ok. But seems like model forecasts are trending higher, and folks might be cutting it kind of close.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#87 Postby ForexTidbits » Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:15 pm

Rgv20 wrote:A few of the 12zECMWF Ensemble Members are forecasting some really high rainfall totals for South Texas. They seem to slow down the disturbance as it approaches the NE Mexican/South Texas Coast. For what is worth the ICON has also been showing this for the past few run, just something to keep an eye out.



I've started to notice that as well and you can also see before the models were moving out the rain by Tuesday but now rain continues through Tuesday and even Wednesday. EURO still might be overdoing the rain a little in my opinion due to complexities in the atmosphere its hard to say this far out what type of mesoscale features will setup when this disturbance moves through. Expect rain totals on the models to jump around from model to model runs.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#88 Postby Haris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 10:39 pm

ICON stalls the storm in S TX then drenched Central TX with feeder bands
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#89 Postby Weather150 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 11:00 pm

00z GFS has a just a disturbance still making an impact on Texas, while 00z CMC closes off a low pressure system at 42 hours.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#90 Postby Nederlander » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:34 am

GFS and CMC both show another system in the WGOM in the 10 day range. GFS is more S.TX/MX while the CMC points toward the LA coast.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#91 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:42 am

Nederlander wrote:GFS and CMC both show another system in the WGOM in the 10 day range. GFS is more S.TX/MX while the CMC points toward the LA coast.

I saw that on the GFS, believe it when I see it! Or at least when when others like the Euro and UKMET jump on board.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#92 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:08 am

91L lost most of the model support last night, so you have to think chances of anything classified went down (as reflected by the NHC not expecting tropical development next 5 days). It shouldn't matter as gales should still be over the NC/NW Gulf, and there could be lots of rainfall. Trailing convection on the east side of the Yucatan which has been blowing up overnight is getting slammed from the rear and overtaken by a blast of Saharan dust that's easily visible on satellite. Still a remote chance for something organized, but I wouldn't bet on it. Look for lots of rain on the Texas coast.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#93 Postby Weather150 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:40 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Nederlander wrote:GFS and CMC both show another system in the WGOM in the 10 day range. GFS is more S.TX/MX while the CMC points toward the LA coast.

I saw that on the GFS, believe it when I see it! Or at least when when others like the Euro and UKMET jump on board.

Yep, when I read 10 days I was like, nope.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#94 Postby ForexTidbits » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:14 am

2nd Tropical wave is flaring up today and latest convection will prompt national hurricane center to start paying close attention as the environment will become more conductive potentially for development once it reaches the gulf of mexico.

The pattern looks very complex and I think for that reason the models are having a hard time figuring it out.

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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#95 Postby Haris » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:20 am

I don’t care anymore what happens after this week .

Both models now show less than 1” here in Central TX after teasing me for several days!

I quit . Let the drought worsen ! SMDH
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#96 Postby ForexTidbits » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:31 am

CMC seems to want to develop the 2nd tropical wave slowly into a potential depression or tropical storm. Interesting to see if NHC puts a 10 to 20 Percent X on it soon.

GFS showed development yesterday but has backed off in the latest run.

The complexity continues......

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Last edited by ForexTidbits on Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#97 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:32 am

the curvature looks good on satelite. Invest coming soon if this keeps popping. Im tired of surprises :)
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#98 Postby ForexTidbits » Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:35 am

jaguars_22 wrote:the curvature looks good on satelite. Invest coming soon if this keeps popping. Im tired of surprises :)


It will be interesting to see what the EURO does...
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#99 Postby EasyTiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:59 pm

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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#100 Postby tolakram » Fri Jun 15, 2018 1:27 pm

The thread for the NW Caribbean disturbance is here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119635
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