ATL Invest 91L: Models

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Haris
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#61 Postby Haris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:13 pm

Why are we using the 84 hour NAM ? Its not good long range! Its garbage like 240 hour GFS? No cyclone happening but a closed low possible. Also stop worrying about EXACT track... Its the NAM. Sorry if this sounded kinda rude but this is wrong
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#62 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:18 pm

Haris wrote:Why are we using the 84 hour NAM ? Its not good long range! Its garbage like 240 hour GFS? No cyclone happening but a closed low possible. Also stop worrying about EXACT track... Its the NAM. Sorry if this sounded kinda rude but this is wrong


I suggest that people use what they want to use as long as they understand what it is and what the biases are.

NAM isn't gospel, and it's certainly not usually great in the tropics. But 1) there is plenty of value there; 2) it's the first model to come out each quarter day; 3) it's not always as bad as people say, and since its upgrade, it certainly wasn't bad the last time we had a Yucatan/South Texas system as it much more accurately predicted that unfolding scenario than the EC or GFS did. That's all back in the middle of the Harvey model thread from last year.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#63 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:23 pm

Nam isn’t bad 2-3 days out
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#64 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:35 pm

Nam picked up Harvey rapid intensification before anything else... doesn’t matter which model we hate or like... each model is interesting to see!! Not one model is 100% correct until the real thing happens! This thing could stay in Texas for days!!
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#65 Postby Haris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:00 pm

Ok but dont compare this to harvey. Yes models under did it but there was still a agreement amongst all models that some tropical could form. This time , its ONLY the long range NAM so confidence is quite low. But hey , I'd love a closed low , more rain! We shall see what happens! I will be watching as well!
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#66 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:03 pm

Middle tx coast needs it!!!!
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#67 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:15 pm

Haris wrote:Ok but dont compare this to harvey. Yes models under did it but there was still a agreement amongst all models that some tropical could form. This time , its ONLY the long range NAM so confidence is quite low. But hey , I'd love a closed low , more rain! We shall see what happens! I will be watching as well!


There are comparisons such as location, though no one (including the NAM) is suggesting that this will become even a minimal hurricane. NAM that I have access to only goes out to 3.5 days, and it does get "dizzy" toward the ends of its runs for sure. But it's definite fodder for discussion. I hope you guys do get some rain. We were in ATX a couple of weeks ago and got a 99 day in. The Greenbelt was empty, so they definitely need some water up in the hill country. Lake Travis was kind of low too though not as low as it had been a few years ago when TX was in perma drought. A nice, slower moving barely organized system might be the ticket to get some moisture back which should also help knock back some of the heat. The caution is for something like the ICON which keeps pumping in rain into S TX or if the EC was to slow it and train some of the bands. Either way, it's something to watch this weekend. I think Sunday am would be when we'll see if it is going to organize or just stream in that tropical surge.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#68 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:26 pm

Also Haris, if you do run the NAM at 500mb, you see a strengthening high centered around Indiana which would most likely mean this would be a TX system if it developed rather than it nudging off to the NE at the end of the run (unless it was to get trapped by the ridging to the north east and west with the reinforcement shot of high pressure coming in off the EPAC.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=84
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#69 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:47 pm

The vorticity maps on today’s 12z Euro is interesting as it’s actually strengthening over land in S TX.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#70 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:50 pm

Jaguar, you’ll love today’s 12z run of the Euro lol Vic gets pounded
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#71 Postby Haris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:55 pm

Steve wrote:
Haris wrote:Ok but dont compare this to harvey. Yes models under did it but there was still a agreement amongst all models that some tropical could form. This time , its ONLY the long range NAM so confidence is quite low. But hey , I'd love a closed low , more rain! We shall see what happens! I will be watching as well!


There are comparisons such as location, though no one (including the NAM) is suggesting that this will become even a minimal hurricane. NAM that I have access to only goes out to 3.5 days, and it does get "dizzy" toward the ends of its runs for sure. But it's definite fodder for discussion. I hope you guys do get some rain. We were in ATX a couple of weeks ago and got a 99 day in. The Greenbelt was empty, so they definitely need some water up in the hill country. Lake Travis was kind of low too though not as low as it had been a few years ago when TX was in perma drought. A nice, slower moving barely organized system might be the ticket to get some moisture back which should also help knock back some of the heat. The caution is for something like the ICON which keeps pumping in rain into S TX or if the EC was to slow it and train some of the bands. Either way, it's something to watch this weekend. I think Sunday am would be when we'll see if it is going to organize or just stream in that tropical surge.


Yessir! I can start seeing the islands of Lake Travis! Not good! hopefully we get something! Thx for the clarification! :wink:
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#72 Postby Haris » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:01 pm

Image


EURO! kayaks needed
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#73 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:02 pm

Can someone post the rainfall map for Euro?? :)
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#74 Postby ForexTidbits » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:02 pm

History does show that gulf of mexico provides a tremendous heat engine for prolific rain events. Models are now starting to see that as well....
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#75 Postby ForexTidbits » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:09 pm

weatherstreet.com showing a potential for a organizing system.

Image
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#76 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:14 pm

Haris wrote:
EURO! kayaks needed


Yeah, that's a lot of rainfall into South Texas. Some of the globals (ICON, EC, CMC, JMA) seem to be coming into agreement on the heaviest precipitation being in South Texas. I don't have a feel one way or another and probably won't unless or until things coalesce later this weekend.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#77 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:16 pm

ForexTidbits wrote:History does show that gulf of mexico provides a tremendous heat engine for prolific rain events. Models are now starting to see that as well....


You’re right. Even today’s 12z GFS which had been one one of the drier models had some more impressive rain totals than it had been showing.
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#78 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:19 pm

Thanks for the map!!! Great catfish weather :)
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#79 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:22 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Thanks for the map!!! Great catfish weather :)


I believe that map had a spot around Cuero approaching 20”
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Re: ATL Invest 91L: Models

#80 Postby Steve » Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:49 pm

NAM 18z out to 75 hours so far is also around South Texas.

Edit landfall down there so NAM joining up with some of the globals
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