EPAC: INVEST 94E

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EPAC: INVEST 94E

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:20 pm

EP, 94, 2018062118, , BEST, 0, 90N, 965W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS006, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
EP, 94, 2018062200, , BEST, 0, 98N, 982W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS006, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
EP, 94, 2018062206, , BEST, 0, 105N, 997W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS006, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
EP, 94, 2018062212, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1011W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS006, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,
EP, 94, 2018062218, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1026W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, ep762018 to ep942018,


From the 11 AM PDT TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing near a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the disturbance moves westward
to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:45 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 06/22/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 32 39 44 49 49 49 50 49
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 26 32 39 44 49 49 49 50 49
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 24 25 26 27 28 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 13 12 13 15 17 18 22 23 25 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 -5 -4 -6
SHEAR DIR 348 351 1 21 24 27 47 81 88 112 125 126 109
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 154 150 144 139 142 147 150 148 147 151
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 75 74 74 71 72 69 69 69 70 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -19 -31 -30 -30 -9 -13 -13 -10 -16 0 13 33
200 MB DIV 26 36 32 34 39 66 72 65 45 38 23 33 37
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 3 4 2 2
LAND (KM) 617 607 584 547 519 490 496 546 625 736 850 977 1147
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.9 15.2 14.9 14.3 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.7 104.5 105.1 105.5 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.6 108.6 110.1 111.6 113.5
STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 6 4 2 3 5 6 7 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 47 48 51 43 35 23 18 23 30 33 39 34 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 29. 29. 30. 29.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.9 102.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.42 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 06/22/18 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2018 4:48 pm

Looks fairly good.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:02 pm

18z GFS barely develops this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2018 6:23 pm

An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated with an elongated
area of low pressure. This is disturbance is disorganized, but the
environment is forecast to become more conducive for development
over the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form
early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:04 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:18z GFS barely develops this.


Model's will be on and off with so many potential TC's in play. I still agree with the NHC odds here for development.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:48 pm

EP, 94, 2018062300, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1041W, 20, 1010, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2018 8:22 pm

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP942018  06/23/18  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    23    26    29    35    43    48    52    54    54    55    54
V (KT) LAND       20    21    23    26    29    35    43    48    52    54    54    55    54
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    21    21    22    24    26    28    31    33    33    33
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        14    15    14    14    12    16    17    17    19    20    31    35    38
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     0    -1     1    -1     0     0     0     3    -4    -8   -10
SHEAR DIR        352     7    27    37    38    44    69    99    91   107   105    95    89
SST (C)         29.4  29.2  28.9  28.6  28.3  28.0  28.3  28.9  29.1  28.7  28.6  28.4  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   160   157   153   149   145   139   145   152   155   151   151   148   147
200 MB T (C)   -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.8 -54.3 -55.0 -54.6 -55.2 -54.8 -55.4 -55.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.4  -0.2  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     5     6     6     6     7     7     7     7     5     5     5
700-500 MB RH     73    73    73    72    72    70    70    70    69    74    76    78    74
MODEL VTX (KT)     4     4     4     4     3     2     4     4     5  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -21   -30   -24   -20    -8   -20   -24   -40   -25    -4     6    27    28
200 MB DIV        55    55    50    45    58    57    58    43    24    31    30    15     8
700-850 TADV      -2    -4    -3    -2    -2    -3     0     0     2     5     4     5     2
LAND (KM)        616   592   585   565   556   551   585   685   822  1001  1195  1421  1587
LAT (DEG N)     12.6  13.2  13.7  14.2  14.6  15.0  14.6  13.5  12.4  11.2  10.0   8.4   7.2
LONG(DEG W)    104.1 105.2 106.0 106.5 106.9 107.5 107.4 107.4 108.0 109.1 110.5 111.8 112.7
STM SPEED (KT)    14    11     8     6     5     1     4     6     7     8    10     9     6
HEAT CONTENT      50    52    46    37    29    20    27    45    51    36    28    25    20

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16      CX,CY: -14/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  465  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            1.3

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   6.  14.  22.  29.  33.  36.  37.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   0.  -3.  -6.  -8. -12. -14. -14.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   5.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   2.   1.  -0.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   9.  15.  23.  28.  32.  34.  34.  35.  34.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:   12.6   104.1

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST     06/23/18  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.33         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   132.9      40.5  to  149.3       0.85         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    13.6      18.9  to    1.4       0.30         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    42.8       0.0  to  106.7       0.40         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    52.6     -33.0  to  156.2       0.45         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      37.8  to    2.1     999.00         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    15.3      62.3  to    0.0       0.75         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.2  to   -1.9     999.00         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    44.8     735.9  to  -82.5       0.84         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST     06/23/18  00 UTC         ##
   ##         ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:07 am

Although the area of showers and thunderstorms located several
hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico appears less organized
tonight, the environment is forecast to become more conducive for
development over the next day or so. A tropical depression is still
likely to form early next week while the disturbance moves westward
to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:45 am

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions may become more
conducive for development when a second weather system approaches
this disturbance from the east over the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:57 pm

Going down.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system
is possible during the next several days before it interacts and
possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#12 Postby Weather150 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:Going down.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system
is possible during the next several days before it interacts and
possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

I assume chances will continue to go down as GFS and Euro aren't really showing much development out of it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:10 pm

:uarrow: Two systems behind it are the real developmental chances.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby Weather150 » Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:13 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Two systems behind it are the real developmental chances.

Yea, higher chances to become a major hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:20 pm

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next several days before it
interacts and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from
the east

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:
An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next several days before it
interacts and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from
the east

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Most likely scenario.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:44 am

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next few days before it interacts
and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:06 am

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next few days before it interacts
and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:47 pm

Going down.

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Some development of
this system is possible during the next few days before it interacts
and possibly merges with a tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 24, 2018 6:47 pm

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing only limited shower and
thunderstorm activity over a broad area. Development of this system
is becoming less likely, but is still possible during the next two
to three days before it interacts and possibly merges with a
tropical wave approaching from the east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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