WPAC: INVEST 93W

[mrbagyo]

93W INVEST 180710 1200 18.3N 111.1E WPAC 15 1003

[euro6208]

EURO strengthens this to 995 mb before a Vietnam landfall...

[euro6208]

93W INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 11, 2018:

Location: 19.3°N 110.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

[euro6208]

93W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 12, 2018:

Location: 18.1°N 109.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

93W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 13, 2018:

Location: 19.4°N 106.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.9N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BACH LONG VI,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A RECENT 132245Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THAT THERE IS LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-20 KNOTS), WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THIS ENVIRONMENT LENDS SUPPORT TO THE MODELS
DEPICTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF TONKIN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO still sensing some slight development before landfall...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.4E, APPROXIMATELY
82 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BACH LONG VI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES
EXPOSED OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142242Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE CONVECTION IS BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES AND HAS BEGUN WRAPPING INTO LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
UNDER STRAIGHT-LINE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C). THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME AND
ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH THE SYSTEM'S PROXIMITY TO HAINAN ISLAND WILL HINDER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM WITH MODELS STILL DEPICTING MINIMAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN REGION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 108.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.1E, APPROXIMATELY 62
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BACH LONG VI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP, CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
151356Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH INTO A BROAD LLCC. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED,
WHICH IS NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) WITH A WEAK
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL REDUCE WIND SHEAR IN THE
REGION. THERE IS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30C), WHICH WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP
INTO A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE TRACKING TO THE WEST AND
MAKING LANDFALL ON THE VIETNAM COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.1N 108.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 108.1E, APPROXIMATELY
88 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BACH LONG VI VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152045Z MHS 89GHZ PARTIAL
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ORGANIZED IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS NOW
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKING LANDFALL ON THE VIETNAM COAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 107.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.