CPAC: INVEST 91C

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#21 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:10 am

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system
located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds
become less conducive by mid-week. This system is moving westward
and is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:11 am

16/1200 UTC 13.5N 137.7W T1.0/1.0 99E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:17 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992018 07/16/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 30 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 30 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 18 20 27 25 8 16 21 27 35 41
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 3 0 -2 2 4 6
SHEAR DIR 270 265 260 266 282 313 307 276 248 271 269 266 252
SST (C) 27.1 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 26.7 27.2 27.0 27.5 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 132 133 139 139 140 141 132 136 134 140 142
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 10
700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 70 68 65 63 58 57 56 59 60 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 30 33 33 24 18 5 2 -7 -1 -13 -13
200 MB DIV 29 18 26 20 28 46 3 -31 -9 9 31 36 24
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1
LAND (KM) 1834 1690 1548 1408 1272 1016 803 641 594 666 811 988 1117
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 139.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 9 14 6 7 8 10 13 28 19 27

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 139.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 3.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 1.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.80 -2.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.8% 8.7% 5.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8%
Logistic: 0.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 3.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 4.1% 3.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 3.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992018 INVEST 07/16/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 99E

#24 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:41 pm

Down to 70% despite the copy-and-paste from the previous outlook. Now in the CPAC.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system
located about 1050 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds
become less conducive by mid-week. This disturbance has crossed
into the Central Pacific basin, and future information on this
system can be found in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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CPAC: INVEST 91C

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:07 pm

Invest changed number to 91C.

CP, 91, 2018071400, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1271W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071406, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1284W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071412, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1298W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071418, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1310W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 80, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS012, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071500, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1323W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012, SPAWNINVEST, ep742018 to ep992018,
CP, 91, 2018071506, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1335W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071512, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1346W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071518, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1357W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071600, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1369W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071606, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1380W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 50, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071612, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1390W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012,
CP, 91, 2018071618, , BEST, 0, 135N, 1401W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 50, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 012
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:30 pm

Looks pathetic.

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#27 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:34 pm

I think this is running out of time to become Walaka. Upper-level winds should increase tomorrow and it has been unable to organize much.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#28 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:41 pm

The LLC looks weak but looks pretty good at the same time. It's actually nicely exposed on visible imagery. Just needs to preserve convection, but this fits the definition of a Tropical Depression. It's going to have a hard time becoming a TS with the outflow boundaries around it and shear becoming stronger.

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#29 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:44 pm

There are no earth-relative westerlies visible. Just looks like a sharp trough like earlier ASCAT suggested. The chances of this becoming designated are quickly decreasing (CPHC decreased to 50/50 at 2pm HST).

Image
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#30 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:47 pm

50% may even be too high IMO. I would probably put it at 10%.

A system with practically no real organisation heading into a wall of shear definitely doesn't look promising in the least. :ggreen:
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#31 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:55 am

It actually looks now the best its ever looked...

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Mon Jul 16 2018

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located less than 800 miles east-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii remain disorganized early this evening. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly hostile for
development of this system as it moves westward at about 10 mph
toward a region with strong upper-level winds during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#32 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:39 pm

Uhhh how did we go from strong upper level winds to "conditions are expected to be conducive for development"? :lol: :lol:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of low pressure are located about 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#33 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:49 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Uhhh how did we go from strong upper level winds to "conditions are expected to be conducive for development"? :lol: :lol:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of low pressure are located about 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

The wall of shear almost coincides with the start and end of the Hawaiian Islands. As it moves away, it'll have warm waters and be under conducive upper level pattern.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#34 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:45 pm

Looks like this will be a Western Pacific storm and not a Central Pacific one
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 91C

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Uhhh how did we go from strong upper level winds to "conditions are expected to be conducive for development"? :lol: :lol:

1. Showers and thunderstorms in association with a broad area of low pressure are located about 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

The wall of shear almost coincides with the start and end of the Hawaiian Islands. As it moves away, it'll have warm waters and be under conducive upper level pattern.


This isn't ex-91C. Notice how it says ESE of Hawaii.
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