WPAC: INVEST 91W

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91W INVEST 180729 0600 29.5N 134.7E WPAC 15 998

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Looking like this is the one JTWC is mentioning in their latest reasoning.

AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, TS 15W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, BAROCLINIC LOW, WHICH REFLECTS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SURFACE DATA TO INCLUDE ASCAT, FEATURE TRACK WINDS
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SURFACE LOW IS VERY LARGE,
ABOUT 1200NM DIAMETER, AND EXTENDS FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND WESTERN JAPAN. SURFACE DATA
AS WELL AS 850MB VORTICITY PRODUCTS PROVIDE EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION / SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMA SOUTH OF SHIKOKU ISLAND.
THIS UNUSUAL, COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TS 15W FORECAST DISCUSSION. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF EEMN, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT TS
15W WILL TRACK CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
AND WILL MERGE WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF SHIKOKU.
TS 15W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND AND
WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP BAROCLINIC LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST
ANTICIPATES DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. HOWEVER, THE
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE MERGED SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AFTER
A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARD EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 72. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS, JTWC
WILL LIKELY REGENERATE 15W BUT NOT UNTIL THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE
THAT A DISTINCT TROPICAL SYSTEM EXISTS BASED ON ASCAT DATA AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. DESPITE THE COMPLEX PATTERN AND LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST, TIMING AND DEGREE OF MERGER, AND EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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Absorb Jongdari?

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
29.5N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY LARGE, APPROXIMATELY 1200NM DIAMETER,
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 290843Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LOW SITUATED OVER THE SURFACE
REFLECTION. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
GET ABSORBED INTO TS 15W NEAR WESTERN JAPAN. TS 15W WILL THEN LIKELY
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN CHINA OVER THE NEXT
2-4 DAYS (SEE REF C (WDPN35 PGTW 292100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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Merged with Jongdari so this invest is deactivated.