EPAC: INVEST 98E

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cycloneye
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EPAC: INVEST 98E

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:43 pm

EP, 98, 2018081218, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1230W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
EP, 98, 2018081300, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1240W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
EP, 98, 2018081306, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1250W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS024, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,
EP, 98, 2018081312, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1260W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, SPAWNINVEST, ep772018 to ep982018, SPAWNINVEST, ep772018 to ep982018, SPAWNINVEST, ep772018 to ep982018, SPAWNINVEST, ep772018 to ep982018,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:44 pm

A broad low pressure area located a little over 1200 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing showers and thunderstorms. While this system is
showing some signs of organization, the low is forecast to reach
cooler waters by tomorrow afternoon, which would limit further
development chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:53 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982018 08/14/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 36 36 36 35 32 26 24 20
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 36 36 36 35 32 26 24 20
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 32 31 28 25 21 18 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 5 8 8 10 16 17 26 31 33 34
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -5 -4 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 -3 -2 -4
SHEAR DIR 194 203 214 189 169 197 189 222 222 235 220 229 226
SST (C) 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.4 24.0 24.5 24.1 24.7 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.1 25.0
POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 120 117 103 108 105 111 106 111 114 112 111
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2
700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 59 58 58 57 58 58 56 51 46 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 1
850 MB ENV VOR -52 -45 -51 -53 -48 -44 -38 -43 -46 -53 -63 -60 -68
200 MB DIV 0 1 5 0 1 -18 -14 7 28 0 1 -1 -7
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 4 7 9 10 9 14 11 4 1
LAND (KM) 1843 1880 1922 1975 2027 2179 1938 1664 1443 1297 1235 1200 1144
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 24.9 25.3
LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.7 131.7 133.9 136.3 138.9 141.1 142.8 143.9 144.7 145.6
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 11 9 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 19 16 12 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. -2. -8. -12. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 1. -1. -5.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 127.9

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 5.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -3.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 14.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.2% 14.1% 7.7% 5.4% 3.8% 6.7% 7.7% 4.3%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.1% 11.4% 8.7% 1.8% 1.3% 6.8% 7.2% 1.4%
DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:54 pm

A broad low pressure area located about 1250 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
showers and a few thunderstorms. While this system is showing some
signs of organization, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters by
Tuesday afternoon, which would limit further development chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Alyono
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:19 pm

This actually looks well organized now. Well-defined circulation with persistent convection
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