WPAC: INVEST 90W

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mrbagyo
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WPAC: INVEST 90W

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:57 pm

90W INVEST 180813 1800 8.5N 144.1E WPAC 15 1004

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:34 pm

Image

Not sure which one would develop 90w or 99w
90w has the convction but 99w has the obvious circulation.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:38 pm

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 132135
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
735 AM ChST Tue Aug 14 2018

PMZ161-171-172-142100-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
735 AM ChST Tue Aug 14 2018

...CIRCULATION SOUTH OF GUAM TO STRENGTHEN MONSOON OVER MICRONESIA...

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK NEAR
8N145E AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS YAP AND CHUUK STATES.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING THE DAY OR TWO, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM AROUND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WHILE THE CIRCULATION
IS SOUTH OF 10N...PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
MONSOON WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.

SURF WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AT CHUUK TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AT YAP ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AT CHUUK
WEDNESDAY...AND ACROSS OTHER OUTER ISLANDS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS
DISCOURAGED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON CURRENT WEATHER FORECASTS AND SEA CONDITIONS.
WAVE CONDITIONS ON LAGOONS ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ROUGHER
CONDITIONS ON THE OPEN OCEAN.

RESIDENTS ON THESE ATOLLS AND ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES IN CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS...AND
HEED INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES.

$$

W. AYDLETT
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:43 pm

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 132216
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
816 AM ChST Tue Aug 14 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...Isolated showers and thunderstorms and northeast
winds prevail over the Marianas this morning. A wet weather pattern
is expected the second half of the week.

&&

.Discussion...
A circulation could be found south of the Marianas near 8N145E.
Models show this circulation passing from south of Guam today then
moving slowly and passing west of the Marianas by Thursday. This
circulation is expected to generate mostly cloudy skies, isolated
showers and thunderstorms through at least Friday. Low-level
convergence and favorable upper-level winds will generate scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night over the Marianas. Winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected today.
The circulation will help cause elevated winds beginning later tonight.
Winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible tonight through Friday night, with
brief periods of 15 to 25 mph winds Thursday night through Friday.
These elevated winds will be generated at first by the circulation
then by the enhanced monsoon flow south of the circulation. Models
hint at more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday through
Wednesday. This wet period appears to be from another circulation
enhancing the monsoon pattern over the Marianas. GFS and NAVGEM do
show the scattered showers while ECMWF depicts more patchy rainfall.
With the varying model opinion, have left showers isolated through
the coming weekend, but this may change as models come to a better
agreement.

&&

.Marine...
Observations from Ritidian, and Tanapag buoys this morning show sea
heights of 4 to 5 feet. Ipan buoy had heights close to 3 feet.
Ritidian and Tanapag buoys show a swell from the west. all buoys show
a east to northeast swell. Sea heights of 4 to 6 feet will prevail
over the Marianas through tonight with an increase to 5 to 7 feet on
Wednesday. With the higher winds generated by the circulation and the
monsoon, seas should increase the second half of the week. With the
elevated winds and seas a Small Craft Advisory will probably be
needed for at least part of the time Thursday through Friday. Surf
of 5 to 7 feet on west and north facing reefs will prevail through
Wednesday. With the increase in winds and seas surf may briefly
become hazardous Thursday and Friday.

&&

.Tropical systems...
A circulation could be found south of Guam near 8N145E. Models show
the circulation passing between Guam and Yap tonight then moving to
the west of the Marianas Thursday. At this time the models do not
develop this circulation into a tropical cyclone. The circulation
is predicted to enhance the monsoon flow across the Western Pacific
causing elevated winds and seas from Wednesday into the weekend.

.Eastern Micronesia...
The eastward extension of a monsoon trough remains perched just north
of 10N, causing southerly flow over the RMI and west to SW flow over
Pohnpei and Kosrae. Scatterometer indicated a west wind burst of
around 25 kt moving eastward south of Pohnpei this morning and Kosrae
observations indicate the wind burst arrived a little after midnight.
Winds are expected to decrease by midmorning, but until then, winds
will keep seas quite choppy.

Showers and thunderstorms will mostly be found north of all three
locations the next few days, but isolated thunderstorms will
redevelop at times as additional weak disturbances periodically
develop within the monsoon trough. Easterly wind flow is expected to
return over the weekend as a developing circulation west of Chuuk
pulls the monsoon trough northwestward toward the Marianas.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
The main focus of weather in the area is a circulation south of Guam
near 8N145E that will slowly try to form over the next few days.
Although the circulation is expected to drift between Yap and Guam
later this week, very wet weather is expected across Koror, Yap, and
Chuuk. Gradual drying is expected at Chuuk by Thursday or Friday, but
Yap and Koror could see showers and thunderstorms continuing until
the weekend, depending on when the circulation depends to head
northwestward or northward over the Philippine Sea.

Have issued a high surf advisory for Chuuk in anticipation of rising
southwest swell. An advisory may also be warranted for Yap either
tonight or Wednesday morning. In addition, winds will become
hazardous to small craft at Chuuk tonight or Wednesday morning. Seas
will increase, but for now, am keeping seas just below 10 ft level,
however, gusty, fresh to strong winds will make seas choppy the next
few days.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Ziobro/W. Aydlett
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 4:48 am

90W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 14, 2018:

Location: 9.7°N 142.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

Image
Image
Image
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:05 pm

Total bust.
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