ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:37 pm

AL, 99, 2018081500, , BEST, 0, 85N, 420W, 20, 1014, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
AL, 99, 2018081506, , BEST, 0, 86N, 435W, 20, 1014, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
AL, 99, 2018081512, , BEST, 0, 87N, 450W, 20, 1014, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
AL, 99, 2018081518, , BEST, 0, 88N, 465W, 20, 1014, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS017, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017,
AL, 99, 2018081600, , BEST, 0, 90N, 480W, 25, 1013, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al792018 to al992018,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:38 pm

Invest before a mention by the NHC. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:40 pm

The dreaded 99L. :eek:

Is it the MDR wave? I didn't think they'd be so interested in it so fast, if at all!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby NotSparta » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:43 pm

AnnularCane wrote:The dreaded 99L. :eek:

Is it the MDR wave? I didn't think they'd be so interested in it so fast, if at all!


8.5°N, 42°W. Yup
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:44 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:44 pm

AnnularCane wrote:The dreaded 99L. :eek:

Is it the MDR wave? I didn't think they'd be so interested in it so fast, if at all!

Don’t remind me of pre-Hermine! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:46 pm

surprise see 99l before 8pm outlook maybe because close to islands that not far if look better we could see plane go out sat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:47 pm

A tropical wave located about 850 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this disturbance is possible over
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph. By early next week, however, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive for any significant development to occur
when the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:47 pm

Models only.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:48 pm


who is Philippe ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:53 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:54 pm

Interesting that they tagged it an invest before it was mentioned by the NHC, but it may be short-lived.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:57 pm

gatorcane wrote:A tropical wave located about 850 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Slow development of this disturbance is possible over
the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to
20 mph. By early next week, however, upper-level winds are expected
to become less conducive for any significant development to occur
when the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:18 pm

Lots of deep convection firing, saved floater image:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:30 pm

Could we finally be moving from blob watching season to yellow x season? :D Although, this thing has a good amount of moisture with it, and who knows, maybe it'll have a fighting chance, after all the NHC declaring it an invest before even mentioning it in the TWO must mean something.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=99L&product=vis-swir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby brohavwx » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:33 pm

floridasun78 wrote:surprise see 99l before 8pm outlook maybe because close to islands that not far if look better we could see plane go out sat


By Saturday, it will be all over us here in Barbados. Too late, as usual.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#17 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:37 pm

Pretty impressive, but I think these are only statistical models

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby brohavwx » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:41 pm

NotSparta wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:The dreaded 99L. :eek:

Is it the MDR wave? I didn't think they'd be so interested in it so fast, if at all!


8.5°N, 42°W. Yup


Certainly you mean more like 48W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:01 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:07 pm

Ridge is very much in place for a Caribbean cruiser, shear looks favorable.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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