ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Twisted-core
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#41 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:23 am

GCANE wrote:With the Bermuda High anchored in the forecast, if this does develop, very likely to run thru the Carib and into GOM.



Image
https://imgur.com/BmM1qRM
Forecast tracks from over 50 computer models.
Red = 12-24 hrs Orange = 24- 36 Yellow =36--48 hrs. Most models suggest a td or weak ts in the lead up to the islands and in the carb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#42 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:01 am

Low latitude situation so we can hope the Caribbean shear keeps it tracking into Mexico as a less harmful nameless entity. We don't have a closed circulation yet just low surface pressure and an uncertain shear forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#43 Postby brohavwx » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:16 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
brohavwx wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Certainly looks ominous enough, but nonexistent model support from operational/ensemble members. Not likely to be anything more than a tropical wave.


Models are yet to do well in the deep Tropics, so don't write it off based on that alone. Now if we put more Recon runs into such low latitude systems we would get more data of deep tropics cyclogenesis to plug into the models but alas they wait until they are well pass 50W to do this. Now if this was up at 20N Recon would be in there in a flash.


I'll grant you that. Harvey was also a sleeper with little-to-no model support to begin with before it reached the Caribbean.


ONLY Harvey ??????
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:46 am

A tropical wave located about 750 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Some gradual development of this system
is possible over the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late
Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the
chances for additional development while the system moves over
the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is
likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#45 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:57 am

Strong convection firing off at sunrise, with overshooting tops, around 17N 57W.
Most of the circulation is pretty far removed to the SE at around 10N 50W.
Looks to be about at the 700mb level.
At this point, doesn't look to ramp up any time soon.
IMHO, more likely to ramp in the west Carib unless something dramatically changes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#46 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:14 am

Kind of curious why the pros haven't chimed in yet on this one? Where is WXman57 and the others?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#47 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:25 am

SoupBone wrote:Kind of curious why the pros haven't chimed in yet on this one? Where is WXman57 and the others?


we have plenty of other systems that have our attention at the moment
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#48 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:49 am

Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Kind of curious why the pros haven't chimed in yet on this one? Where is WXman57 and the others?


we have plenty of other systems that have our attention at the moment

What, no love for invests in the MDR? :lol:

#JusticeForInvests
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#49 Postby brohavwx » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:26 am

Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Kind of curious why the pros haven't chimed in yet on this one? Where is WXman57 and the others?


we have plenty of other systems that have our attention at the moment


Not when you live in Barbados right now. Or for those US citizens vacationing here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#50 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:38 am

brohavwx wrote:
Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Kind of curious why the pros haven't chimed in yet on this one? Where is WXman57 and the others?


we have plenty of other systems that have our attention at the moment


Not when you live in Barbados right now. Or for those US citizens vacationing here.


when we have 5 world wide cyclones active, a 20% chance of developing disturbance is not going to warrant much of our time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#51 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:44 am

Alyono wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Kind of curious why the pros haven't chimed in yet on this one? Where is WXman57 and the others?


we have plenty of other systems that have our attention at the moment


I don't pay you to sit around, playing your Nintendo Switch all day! :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#52 Postby brohavwx » Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:28 am

Alyono wrote:
brohavwx wrote:
Alyono wrote:
we have plenty of other systems that have our attention at the moment


Not when you live in Barbados right now. Or for those US citizens vacationing here.


when we have 5 world wide cyclones active, a 20% chance of developing disturbance is not going to warrant much of our time


Well you have several discussion groups for each here ... If I stray into another and mention Invest 99L I am sure I will get told off. Even if I go into Invest 99L Models with just discussion or anything else than 'model' topic same.
Last edited by brohavwx on Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#53 Postby jasons » Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:33 am

Sorry this is late, but for those looking for some insight from a Pro Met, this was sent out by Jeff Lindner at about 8:30 last night:

There has been little mention of the Atlantic tropics thus far this hurricane season…even though we are already on our “E” storm. Most of the storms have been focused in the sub-tropical north Atlantic away from the generally hostile conditions in the deep tropics and far removed from any land interaction.

However conditions are starting to slowly change and as is usual for mid August conditions are becoming more favorable for the development of tropical systems in the deep tropics or that region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea.

99L:
A tropical wave roughly 850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has shown an increase in deep convection today. This convection (thunderstorms) remains fairly disorganized at this time. Significant amounts of Saharan Air (dusty air from the deserts of N Africa) have been generally keeping the formation of convection to a minimum for the last 2 months, but 99L has found itself far to the south (near 8N) and mainly south of the dusty air across the mid Atlantic. This system has also found itself near/under a building ridge of high pressure aloft and removed from the anomalous strong wind shear thus far this year across the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic

Conditions appear at least marginally favorable for some slow develop of this feature as it move W to WNW over the next 48-72 hours.

There is little to no model support for this feature to develop, but we shall see what the 00Z and 12Z models suggest. At the 800pm TWO this evening the Hurricane Center is giving this system a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves generally toward the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Reminder: it is important as we move into the heart of hurricane season to get information from trusted sources especially on social media. Posts showing where a storm could be 7-9 days from now and at some level of intensity should not be believed and it is important to refrain from sharing such posts without proper context.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#54 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:21 am

Some deeper convection firing off around the mid-level vort.
12N between 51W and 49W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#55 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:25 am

The Canadian has this just north of Eastern Cuba my mid-next week and keeps the vorticity in tact this run:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#56 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:29 am

This popped up all of a sudden.
Looking at VIS sat and latest GFS low-level wind initialization, GFS is obviously missing the boat.
We may see some scrambling in the next 24 hrs.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#57 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:35 am

Moving into favorable Upper-Level conditions.
Whoop, Whoop. Hot-Tower watch issued.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#58 Postby ObsessedMiami » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:40 am

Wouldn't be back to school week in Miami without something to ponder
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#59 Postby SoupBone » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:49 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Wouldn't be back to school week in Miami without something to ponder



With the Bermuda High, I'm not entirely sure it's a Miami issue...for now. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#60 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:52 am

Actually, there were a couple small hot towers that fired off about 6 hrs ago.

Image
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