Sorry this is late, but for those looking for some insight from a Pro Met, this was sent out by Jeff Lindner at about 8:30 last night:
There has been little mention of the Atlantic tropics thus far this hurricane season…even though we are already on our “E” storm. Most of the storms have been focused in the sub-tropical north Atlantic away from the generally hostile conditions in the deep tropics and far removed from any land interaction.
However conditions are starting to slowly change and as is usual for mid August conditions are becoming more favorable for the development of tropical systems in the deep tropics or that region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea.
A tropical wave roughly 850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has shown an increase in deep convection today. This convection (thunderstorms) remains fairly disorganized at this time. Significant amounts of Saharan Air (dusty air from the deserts of N Africa) have been generally keeping the formation of convection to a minimum for the last 2 months, but 99L has found itself far to the south (near 8N) and mainly south of the dusty air across the mid Atlantic. This system has also found itself near/under a building ridge of high pressure aloft and removed from the anomalous strong wind shear thus far this year across the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic
Conditions appear at least marginally favorable for some slow develop of this feature as it move W to WNW over the next 48-72 hours.
There is little to no model support for this feature to develop, but we shall see what the 00Z and 12Z models suggest. At the 800pm TWO this evening the Hurricane Center is giving this system a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days as it moves generally toward the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Reminder: it is important as we move into the heart of hurricane season to get information from trusted sources especially on social media. Posts showing where a storm could be 7-9 days from now and at some level of intensity should not be believed and it is important to refrain from sharing such posts without proper context.