ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[GCANE]

AF301 just took off - en route

[ozonepete]

Sure looks closed on radar.

[xironman]

There is spin well above the surface on radar

[GCANE]

Light cell on radar showing NW to SE movement.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... X&loop=yes

[GCANE]

5500 CAPE air east of FL.
Winds are just on the verge of entraining this.
Any deepening of pressure and it will.
Could take off then.

[Aric Dunn]

It only needs convection now.

[supercane4867]

So is the name Florence still on the table for this system if it gets named?

[Aric Dunn]

So is the name Florence still on the table for this system if it gets named?

it should be but it is not.

[Hurricaneman]

So is the name Florence still on the table for this system if it gets named?

Nope it will be Michael, Florence’s baby

[Hammy]

Small patch of low clouds near the cirrus band at the end of the latest NASA loop are moving S-SSE (held the mouse there to make sure to make sure it wasn't an illusion created by the high clouds) which while not seeming much, is the first hint that the center is closing off and that any center that's developing is likely near the SW edge of the convection.

[xironman]

Plane finally in route, maybe an hour for obs

[OuterBanker]

A little bit of irony here. Today we on the northern Outer Banks have received more rain from the bands of Florence 2 than we ever did from Florence 1. We here were probably the best place to be in NC from Florence 1. Little rain and no damage (erosion is another story though). Winds now are a steady 15 kts and building. I think the winds are from Florence 2 because I don’t think that the front is producing any gradient winds yet. Waves 7.6 ft.

http://www.ncaquariums.com/jennettes-pi ... conditions

[Aric Dunn]

I have the center at 32.60N 75.52W

from both Sat and radar.

[GCANE]

The clouds on the SW of the CoC are accelerating into the center.

[Vdogg]

A little bit of irony here. Today we on the northern Outer Banks have received more rain from the bands of Florence 2 than we ever did from Florence 1. We here were probably the best place to be in NC from Florence 1. Little rain and no damage (erosion is another story though). Winds now are a steady 15 kts and building. I think the winds are from Florence 2 because I don’t think that the front is producing any gradient winds yet. Waves 7.6 ft.

http://www.ncaquariums.com/jennettes-pi ... conditions

Same here in Virginia Beach. It rained harder today than it ever did during that event.

[Vdogg]

So when is this supposed to hit shear again? I thought NHC said tonight. May be running out of time to fully develop.

[Hammy]

No way the plane gets there to gather enough obs before advisory time. Probably special if we see an upgrade?

[Aric Dunn]

center now looks about 33.12N 75.9W

[Hammy]

center now looks about 33.12N 75.9W

No lat/lon on here so I'm not sure if this lines up to that, but I've put it about here, with apparent low cloud/thunderstorm motion around it.



Edit: definitely looks closed from recon but winds to the west are likely too weak for NHC to initiate advisories.

[Aric Dunn]

center now looks about 33.12N 75.9W

No lat/lon on here so I'm not sure if this lines up to that, but I've put it about here, with apparent low cloud/thunderstorm motion around it.

https://i.imgur.com/pAjCFJ1.png

Edit: definitely looks closed from recon but winds to the west are likely too weak for NHC to initiate advisories.

could also be multiple vorts still. really needs some deep convection to consolidate.


So roughly here.