ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#181 Postby Airboy » Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:59 pm

Recon have the center about 33.483N 76.417W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#182 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:11 pm

Airboy wrote:Recon have the center about 33.483N 76.417W


they were not fully at operational altitude at that time. was a wind switch from dropping down more.

they are down in the general area now. straight south winds means the center is ever so slightly to the west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#183 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:19 pm

Recon reported a west wind flying at 981mb (altitude 1000 ft)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#184 Postby Airboy » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Airboy wrote:Recon have the center about 33.483N 76.417W


they were not fully at operational altitude at that time. was a wind switch from dropping down more.

they are down in the general area now. straight south winds means the center is ever so slightly to the west.


oh okey, yeah, I see that they maybe found a center more SE of it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#185 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:29 pm

I don't know what happened with that thread posting. lol

Anyways here a image of the recon
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#186 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:30 pm

Solid center fix from recon.

33.16N 76.09W

vs mine from an hour ago.. :P
33.12N 75.9W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#187 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:32 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:I don't know what happened with that thread posting. lol

Anyways here a image of the recon
https://imageshack.com/a/img923/5656/lt2Wtz.png


I moved it to the 98L recon thread. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#188 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:44 pm

Thankfully this cannot get the convection to sustain , although it has been firing all around the center and glad it's short on time to encounter shear to the NW of the system. Hope it stays that way overnight tonight. In reality that's a good bit of time to allow for beach erosion on already hammered beaches.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#189 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:53 pm

Looks like we're going to come down to a judgement call by whoever is on shift. Hopefully we can get an upgrade out of this so that (as with TD10) it can go on official record.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#190 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 25, 2018 4:59 pm

That's the thing that frustrates me. Having this fascinating long lived feature, worthy of being labeled a depression it seems, documented at all comes down to a subjective judgment call. If they don't upgrade, this goes down as nothing in the books. If there's a closed center (seems to nearly be as per recon) and deep convection (has been for 2 days) it's a tropical depression. They've initiated advisories on much worse lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#191 Postby seahawkjd » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:03 pm

Is it possible they won't do it so that they don't freak out coastal NC? Its close but it doesn't seem like its going to do much (it did quite enough the first time around :grr: )
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#192 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:09 pm

THe first spiral band is developing on radar. starting to organize even more.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#193 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:22 pm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 22:11Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 21:41:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.27N 76.12W
B. Center Fix Location: 107 statute miles (172 km) to the SSE (160°) from Morehead City, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 25m (82ft) at an unspecified standard level
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1016mb (30.01 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 30kts (34.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the NNE (32°) of center fix at 21:40:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 136° at 16kts (From the SE at 18.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NE (44°) of center fix at 21:39:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18kts (20.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 21:45:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 283° at 13kts (From the WNW at 15.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 21:47:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 269m (883ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 260m (853ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 16kts (~ 18.4mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NE (44°) from the flight level center at 21:39:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#194 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:24 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#195 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:27 pm

GCANE wrote:[url]http://i68.tinypic.com/x1dirp.png[/rl]


now they are going to go scour around for some higher winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#196 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:[url]http://i68.tinypic.com/x1dirp.png[/rl]


now they are going to go scour around for some higher winds.


Where would you put the upgrade chances at this point?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#197 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:30 pm

Hammy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:[url]http://i68.tinypic.com/x1dirp.png[/rl]


now they are going to go scour around for some higher winds.


Where would you put the upgrade chances at this point?


it meets all the criteria.........
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#198 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:32 pm

Winds dont support a td does it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#199 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:35 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Winds dont support a td does it


There is no lower boundary for wind speeds in a TD. Technically, they could initiate advisories and call it a TD with 15 knot sustained winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#200 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:36 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Winds dont support a td does it


The strength of the wind is not a criterion for a TD> however there are likely 25 to 30 kt winds out there in the heaver squalls to the east.
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