ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#201 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:43 pm

They are likely going to say at the 8pm outlook that recon found a closed circulation but convection is not organized enough and only a slight increase in convection would result in advisories.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#202 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:44 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:Winds dont support a td does it


There is no lower boundary for wind speeds in a TD. Technically, they could initiate advisories and call it a TD with 15 knot sustained winds.


Isn't there like an unspoken rule for 20kt? TD6 in 1995 is the lowest I've ever seen an initial advisory and that's what it was (in fact it's the only one I can think of that didn't start out at 25-30kt)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#203 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 25, 2018 5:46 pm

Peak SFMR surface wind 40 knt in the clear.
In a cell with 11 mm/hr rain rate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#204 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:03 pm

Hammy wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:
hurricanedude wrote:Winds dont support a td does it


There is no lower boundary for wind speeds in a TD. Technically, they could initiate advisories and call it a TD with 15 knot sustained winds.


Isn't there like an unspoken rule for 20kt? TD6 in 1995 is the lowest I've ever seen an initial advisory and that's what it was (in fact it's the only one I can think of that didn't start out at 25-30kt)


Yes, actually I have seen several websites listing the 20kt threshold as a criterion for TD formation. The only time I’ve seen them issue advisories for 15kt systems is during dissipation, especially after they made landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#205 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:09 pm

There's enough there for a 25kt upgrade, but will NHC actually go with it is the question now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#206 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:21 pm

No upgrade.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area
centered about 175 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
has become better defined. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and the low has not yet
developed into a tropical depression. Some additional development
is possible tonight as the low moves northward near or over portions
of extreme eastern North Carolina. After tonight, development
appears unlikely due to strong upper-level winds while the system
moves generally north-northeastward near the eastern United States
coast. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of eastern South
Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight. In addition, dangerous
surf conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast tonight. For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#207 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:23 pm

yeppers thats what I figured lol..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#208 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:26 pm

Wow, figures. Shame it's not a naked swirl with completely disorganized blobs of deep convection to the east, then it woulda been upgraded for sure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#209 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:55 pm

This is done as far as having any rain or wind for the east coast. It is clearly starting to move northeastward and the necessary convection never materialized. I could see it becoming a TS as it accelerates away from the U.S. but any threat to NC is over as far as I can see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#210 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:56 pm

ozonepete wrote:This is done as far as having any rain or wind for the east coast. It is clearly starting to move northeastward and the necessary convection never materialized. I could see it becoming a TS as it accelerates away from the U.S. but any threat to NC is over as far as I can see.


you mean NW / NNW :P

and yeah unless convection develops starting now. wont likely develop until it starts moving NE>
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#211 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:06 pm

the shear as already begun to kick in. mid level circ has separated from the low level already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#212 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:09 pm

:uarrow: Yeah the LLC is still going NW or NNW but the entire mid-level circ is shifting NNE if not NE now. i.e. shear, lol, and lots of it. Like many before it, when it accelerates away to the northeast the shear can enhance it for a while by lining up the LLC and MLC, but that's about it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#213 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:50 pm

Great news for NC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#214 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:22 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Great news for NC


Absolutely. :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#215 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 25, 2018 8:57 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#216 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:31 pm

Convection has died out tonight. Almost certainly met the criteria for a weak TD earlier today but probably not anymore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#217 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:34 am

0% chance of development at this point, stick a fork in it. Though NHC will probably drop the chances more slowly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#218 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:24 pm

Made it to almost 76.5W before verifying the last weeks long range forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#219 Postby ozonepete » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:44 pm

Hammy wrote:0% chance of development at this point, stick a fork in it. Though NHC will probably drop the chances more slowly.


Ummm whoops don't stick the fork in yet. As I said yesterday it could still develop as it moves northeastward away from the U.S. And looking at the latest SWIR loop, it's too early to say that won't happen. There is a big convective burst getting blown away from the LLC but, as happens so often with weak tropical lows moving away from the U.S. at this time of the year, the strong upper winds align with the lower level winds and allow the LLC to get under the MLC over the very warm GOM. Fun to watch since t's no harm to anyone.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#220 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:50 pm

Yeah I doubt the NHC is going to classify it but it's definitely still organized now that convection has held on. Shame this will probably not be noted or documented officially since it basically meets all criteria.
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