SEIO 90S INVEST/11U

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

SEIO 90S INVEST/11U

#1 Postby vortextracker » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:06 am

90S INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 14, 2019:

Location: 11.9°S 127.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Image



Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Monday 14 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 17 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A tropical low (11U) may develop within a deepening trough north of the Kimberley later today or tomorrow. The tropical low is forecast to track west over the Timor Sea and the Browse Basin today and tomorrow. By Wednesday there is a slight risk of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity, though by this time the system is expected to be over the Indian Ocean, well to the northwest of the Kimberley with minimal risk of affecting the West Australian mainland. In the longer term, the system will continue to track to the west throughout the week, well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean where there is a chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Moderate

There are no other tropical lows expected to develop in the Western Region over the next three days.
0 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: SEIO 90S INVEST/11U

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:50 am

The disturbance has some nice curvature.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
vortextracker
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:12 am

Re: SEIO 90S INVEST/11U

#3 Postby vortextracker » Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:12 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Nice rotation on tpw morph :uarrow:

Image
https://imgur.com/so4xShW
Got some decent heat transfer also over the disturbance.


Image


EC thinks it's a high probability 90S will form. Image
https://imgur.com/IUu8e8w
0 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 68 guests