SPAC: INVEST 99P

[Nancy Smar]

99P INVEST 190205 0000 14.4S 171.3W SHEM 20 1001

[Nancy Smar]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.9 168.9WAT
042100UTC. TD06F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8
VIS/EIR IMMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE
[LLCC] IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TD06F LIES UNDER AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

[Nancy Smar]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.5S 171.1W, APPROXIMATELY 77 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050452Z PARTIAL AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EASTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 99P LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE
TO SEVERE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE 99P
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99P WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH, BUT DO NOT AGREE ON
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.