SIO: Invest 97S

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SIO: Invest 97S

#1 Postby TorSkk » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:16 pm

97S INVEST 190228 1800 7.0S 63.3E SHEM 15 0
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Re: SIO: Invest 97S

#2 Postby TorSkk » Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:20 pm

Suspect area East of Agalega :

An area of low level enhanced vorticity still exist midway between Agalega and the Chagos
archipelago with a rotation axis near 7.5°S and 64°E. The associated convective activity remains
minimal at this time. Due to the development of the area located further east, the environment
(mainly in the low levels) will gradually become not conducive for tropical development.

Over the next 5 days, there is no more risk of development of a moderate tropical storm East
of Agalega.
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Re: SIO: Invest 97S

#3 Postby TorSkk » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:46 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S
63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010538Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. A 010539Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SEVERAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM’S TRACK AND
INTENSITY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF INVEST 96S. THE UKMET MODEL
INDICATES AN EAST AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH 97S BEING ABSORBED INTO 96S. NAVGEM AND GFS SHOW
THE SYSTEM AS QUASISTATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE INTENSIFYING
AND MOVING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: SIO: Invest 97S

#4 Postby TorSkk » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:15 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0S 63.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 468
NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A VERY BROAD, ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH UNORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. DESPITE THE WEAK LLC,
CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE
TO DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER, 97S IS ENCOUNTERING
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS). SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM
(28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BUT VARY ON
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL, WITH MOST MODELS SUPPORTING ABSORPTION INTO
96S AND GFS SHOWING 97S DEVELOPING INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SIO: Invest 97S

#5 Postby TorSkk » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:19 am

Suspect area East of Agalega :

This morning Ascat swath show a broad elongated circulation with maximal winds reaching 15kt.
With the gradual decrease of the polar feeding due to the eastern cyclogenesis, the low is expected
to rapidly merge into the vast surface trough.

Over the next 5 days, there is no more risk of development of a moderate tropical storm East
of Agalega.
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Re: SIO: Invest 97S

#6 Postby TorSkk » Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:15 pm

Suspect area East of Agalega :

This morning Ascat swath show a broad elongated circulation with maximal winds reaching
15/20kt, butlast gmi data of 0616UTC do not show any organisation of the convection. With the
gradual decrease of the polar feeding due to the eastern cyclogenesis, the low is expected to rapidly
merge into the vast surface trough.

Over the next 5 days, there is no more risk of development of a moderate tropical storm East
of Agalega.
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Re: SIO: Invest 97S

#7 Postby TorSkk » Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:14 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2S 64.9E, IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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