EPAC: INVEST 92E

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cycloneye
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EPAC: INVEST 92E

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 29, 2019 1:17 pm

As of 18:00 UTC May 29, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 96.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM


An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
south of the southern coast of Mexico continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days before it
moves inland over southern Mexico. Regardless of whether or not
this disturbance develops, heavy rain is expected over portions of
southern Mexico and Central America throughout this week and into
the weekend. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Wed May 29, 2019 1:52 pm

No support from the operational Euro and UKMET. GFS makes this a TS in the next 36 hours.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 29, 2019 7:46 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 29 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue a couple hundred
miles south of southern Mexico in association with a broad area of
low pressure. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during
the next day or so before the system moves inland over southern
Mexico. Regardless of whether or not this disturbance develops,
heavy rain is expected over portions of southern Mexico and Central
America throughout this week and into the weekend. These rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#4 Postby Tailspin » Thu May 30, 2019 3:43 am

Great sst,but with weak divergence there is no lift to sustain convection.
https://imgur.com/jfe10MD
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#5 Postby TorSkk » Thu May 30, 2019 9:11 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A trough of low pressure is producing widespread but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over portions of southern Mexico, Central
America, and the far eastern Pacific. This system is expected to
move inland during the next day or so and tropical cyclone formation
is not anticipated. Even though development is not expected, heavy
rain is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico and
Central America into the weekend. These rains could cause flash
flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#6 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu May 30, 2019 1:19 pm

GFS has been having problems lately in the EPac.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#7 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 30, 2019 3:04 pm

Deep convection, banding features.. looks pretty darn good on satellite. Doesn't have much time over water though.
Image

ASCAT:
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#8 Postby Chris90 » Thu May 30, 2019 3:15 pm

:uarrow: I was coming here to say the same thing. It does look pretty good right now. I highly doubt it will get recognized though.
This has been a very dull May in the tropics. It's pretty much been Andrea and watching 91E and now 92E. I think right now 92E has been the best anything has looked this month, although I may be forgetting something in the Southern Hemisphere at the beginning of the month.
Although May isn't exactly prime time in any of the tropics, so not exactly unexpected.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Thu May 30, 2019 3:46 pm

Chris90 wrote::uarrow: I was coming here to say the same thing. It does look pretty good right now. I highly doubt it will get recognized though.
This has been a very dull May in the tropics. It's pretty much been Andrea and watching 91E and now 92E. I think right now 92E has been the best anything has looked this month, although I may be forgetting something in the Southern Hemisphere at the beginning of the month.
Although May isn't exactly prime time in any of the tropics, so not exactly unexpected.



Yeah, May is supposed to be dull, at least in the Atlantic. :lol: I am wondering when the EPAC will see some action though.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 30, 2019 6:09 pm

Pretty impressive banding features:
Image

Fortunately for Mexico it's about to be inland soon.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#11 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu May 30, 2019 8:59 pm

Chris90 wrote::uarrow: I was coming here to say the same thing. It does look pretty good right now. I highly doubt it will get recognized though.
This has been a very dull May in the tropics. It's pretty much been Andrea and watching 91E and now 92E. I think right now 92E has been the best anything has looked this month, although I may be forgetting something in the Southern Hemisphere at the beginning of the month.
Although May isn't exactly prime time in any of the tropics, so not exactly unexpected.


I think you're forgetting Fani. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#12 Postby Chris90 » Thu May 30, 2019 10:54 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:
Chris90 wrote::uarrow: I was coming here to say the same thing. It does look pretty good right now. I highly doubt it will get recognized though.
This has been a very dull May in the tropics. It's pretty much been Andrea and watching 91E and now 92E. I think right now 92E has been the best anything has looked this month, although I may be forgetting something in the Southern Hemisphere at the beginning of the month.
Although May isn't exactly prime time in any of the tropics, so not exactly unexpected.


I think you're forgetting Fani. :lol:


Ah yes. I forgot it lasted into May.

Deep convection with the center of 92E seems to be fading. More showers and thunderstorms for Mexico though.
Hopefully we can get an invest soon that doesn't hug the coast and actually moves out to sea and develops into a proper storm.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 92E

#13 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 2:02 am

Chris90 wrote:
Monsoonjr99 wrote:
Chris90 wrote::uarrow: I was coming here to say the same thing. It does look pretty good right now. I highly doubt it will get recognized though.
This has been a very dull May in the tropics. It's pretty much been Andrea and watching 91E and now 92E. I think right now 92E has been the best anything has looked this month, although I may be forgetting something in the Southern Hemisphere at the beginning of the month.
Although May isn't exactly prime time in any of the tropics, so not exactly unexpected.


I think you're forgetting Fani. :lol:


Ah yes. I forgot it lasted into May.

Deep convection with the center of 92E seems to be fading. More showers and thunderstorms for Mexico though.
Hopefully we can get an invest soon that doesn't hug the coast and actually moves out to sea and develops into a proper storm.


Steering pattern will switch up in late June and allow such tracks
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