ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2019 10:11 pm

Location: 19.4°N 90.6°W
Maximum Winds: 15 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

Image

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120292&p=2742544#p2742544
4 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15424
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 31, 2019 10:19 pm

Timing is a key factor here.

Needs time for something to work down to the surface and get consistent convection firing before moving in land. Struggled to see that happen over the EPAC.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1968
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:15 am

30/40
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010507
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
is centered near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward over the southern
Bay of Campeche during the weekend and near the east coast of Mexico
early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible as
long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will
likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2019 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Andrea AN-dree-uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh
Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh
Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor
Dorian DOR-ee-an Olga OAL-guh
Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo
Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh
Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien suh-BASH-chuhn
Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh
Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van
Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee
Karen KAIR-ren

One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May. The
next named storm that forms this season will be Barry.

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at www.hurricanes.gov. You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC.
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven
1 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jun 01, 2019 12:27 am

This thing keeps falling off the navy site. Problem is, it's my main source for my website getting TC updates, and it's been MIA for an hour and a half. Does anyone else know anywhere else current TCs/invests around the world can be found?
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby USTropics » Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:18 am

NotSparta wrote:This thing keeps falling off the navy site. Problem is, it's my main source for my website getting TC updates, and it's been MIA for an hour and a half. Does anyone else know anywhere else current TCs/invests around the world can be found?


What type of data format do you want? If you were using KML files, I can't find the link but NRL has an ftp server (they use to have a backup site, not sure if thats still public). You could also just use the NCAR global repository (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/repository/contributors/). Using this link (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/repository/), A-F decks contain certain data, but you probably want tcvitals .data files for now (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/reposito ... tals_open/). You can easily use any WGET type application to continually download them (this is the exact file for 91L - http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/reposito ... s-arch.dat), I think there's even a python script that you can run to easily capture these files (there is for the local conditions anyways).
2 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:34 am

8 AM:

A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the
next few days. If the system remains over water, a tropical
depression could form before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1644
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:30 am

USTropics wrote:
NotSparta wrote:This thing keeps falling off the navy site. Problem is, it's my main source for my website getting TC updates, and it's been MIA for an hour and a half. Does anyone else know anywhere else current TCs/invests around the world can be found?


What type of data format do you want? If you were using KML files, I can't find the link but NRL has an ftp server (they use to have a backup site, not sure if thats still public). You could also just use the NCAR global repository (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/repository/contributors/). Using this link (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/repository/), A-F decks contain certain data, but you probably want tcvitals .data files for now (http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/reposito ... tals_open/). You can easily use any WGET type application to continually download them (this is the exact file for 91L - http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/reposito ... s-arch.dat), I think there's even a python script that you can run to easily capture these files (there is for the local conditions anyways).


I know where I can find data for 91L, but the problem is automatically generating the currently active systems.

Seems that the tcvitals are my only hope at this point. Looks like I'll have to go back to the "dark ages" again having to look at how recent files are, lol
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby BYG Jacob » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:33 am

Anybody have satellite images? Google has failed me.
0 likes   

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 574
Age: 49
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Sturbridge, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby crownweather » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:36 am

BYG Jacob wrote:Anybody have satellite images? Google has failed me.


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm
1 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby StruThiO » Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:37 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:22 am

12z Best Track:

Location: 20.0°N 93.0°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby BYG Jacob » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:22 am

Vorts, Vorts everywhere.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:25 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:54 am

Looks like we have a developing circ( could already be) down there.....
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

USTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2379
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby USTropics » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:18 am

Definitely some surface signs that a circulation is trying to get going off the coast:

Image

It's a bit difficult to see the low-levels, but increased banding and curvature are evident (try this animated GIF https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined).

Image

Still broad (and possibly open on the SW side) but development chances are increasing.

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:30 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like we have a developing circ( could already be) down there.....


Great that recon will go on Sunday.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:30 am

Image
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby GCANE » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:43 am

Decent outflow setup.
Just enough of a shear gradient to fire off those towers and still develop a TC.
LL Vorts still unorganized though but could easily change.
Dirunal effects could kick something off tonight IMHO.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby GCANE » Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:51 am

BoC Buoy currently at
1010 mb
1 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2899
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:07 am

Perfect time and location for a quick BoC spinup. Very possible this could become TS Barry before landfall.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests