ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#141 Postby StormLogic » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:17 pm

This guy is really ramping up
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#142 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:25 pm

8 PM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have changed little in
organization during the last several hours. This system is expected
to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of
Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before moving inland
in about a day. Regardless of development, the disturbance will
likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern
Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to
spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests along
the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#143 Postby lrak » Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:40 pm

Darn NHC....put the tail gait party on hold 8-)

Query...since this is a gyre storm (no clue) lol does that contribute to the no eddys? Around?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#144 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:24 pm

It's another evening of surface heating-induced convection lighting up Yucatan and the coastal areas of the Bay of Campeche, which has repeatedly muted convection over the oceanic regions of 91L's circulation over the last several days. However it appears on this evening our invest area is attempting to muster some sea-based convection of its own near the disorganized center. We'll have to wait and see if it can finally grow some semblance of organized central convection when the oceanic diurnal maximum arrives in roughly 10 hours.

4.7 Mb GIF. Source: Generated myself, though as a summer project I am planning on hosting this stuff via an academic institution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#145 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:31 pm

The center is still pretty close to the coast, but the shear is lifting convection quite far NW.
Would mean heavy rain for Louisiana if that pattern continues.
Hopefully the forward speed increases so the accumulation doesn't cause serious flooding.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#146 Postby storminabox » Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:42 pm

Wow this systems appearance has really improved over the past couple hours. Cheers to another year of tracking these storms with you guys!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#147 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:13 pm

00z Best Track:

Location: 20.7°N 95.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#148 Postby chaser1 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:16 pm

:Partytime: Hey? Where's all the food?
Oh well maybe later lol!

I think tonight its gonna be "go-time"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#149 Postby StormLogic » Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:28 pm

According to the last surface plot just before the Latest one, the direction of 91L seems to have changed to due north, anyone seeing what I'm seeing? If the direction has changed to due north, it could give this little guy some more time to develop IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#150 Postby Condor » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:12 pm

StormLogic wrote:According to the last surface plot just before the Latest one, the direction of 91L seems to have changed to due north, anyone seeing what I'm seeing? If the direction has changed to due north, it could give this little guy some more time to develop IMO


Do you have the latest surface plots ?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#151 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:55 pm

I think it's pretty noteworthy that none of the hurricane intensity models show this getting up to TS intensity. We'll see what happens of course, but for now, it looks like a rain event for SE Texas and Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#152 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:07 pm

jasons wrote:I think it's pretty noteworthy that none of the hurricane intensity models show this getting up to TS intensity. We'll see what happens of course, but for now, it looks like a rain event for SE Texas and Louisiana.


Yeah I’m not expecting any development from this. It’s a sloppy mess. Hope to get at least a couple inches from this here in the Wharton/El Campo area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#153 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:10 am

A tower with helicity firing close to the center

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#154 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:44 am

Development chances are definitely decreasing as per the latest TWO and Euro run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#155 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:22 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Development chances are definitely decreasing as per the latest TWO and Euro run.


Yep it's running out of time. Probably has less than 18 hours left over water. Conditions aren't very favorable either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#156 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:02 am

Convection now firing over the Low, I think we see this make a run toward development today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#157 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:04 am

Well depending on where the llc is... which may be quite a bit farther offshore than the models were showing. This would of course be interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#158 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:37 am

Moisture is being driven into this from the big MCS to the east and the 500mb vort.
IMHO, chances looking better for development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#159 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:39 am

Shear also dropping to the north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#160 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:58 am

GCANE wrote:Moisture is being driven into this from the big MCS to the east and the 500mb vort.
IMHO, chances looking better for development.


Yeah especially since it appears to be much further offshore.

Just depends on where center is.
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