ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#161 Postby tailgater » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:44 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:Moisture is being driven into this from the big MCS to the east and the 500mb vort.
IMHO, chances looking better for development.


Yeah especially since it appears to be much further offshore.

Just depends on where center is.


NDBC 42055 showing the pressure is rising but winds are up a good bit 25kts gusting to 31 kts. The wind wind direction is anyone’s guess bcuz the it not reporting any data in that field. Again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#162 Postby jasons » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:07 am

Lookie at the Brownsville radar. A distinct LLC trying to wrap quickly but it’s going to make landfall within hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#163 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:13 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has decreased
since yesterday and remains disorganized. This system could briefly
become a tropical depression before moving inland over northeastern
Mexico later today or tonight. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. For more information about the
rainfall threat in the United States, please see products issued by
your local forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#164 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:16 am

jasons wrote:Lookie at the Brownsville radar. A distinct LLC trying to wrap quickly but it’s going to make landfall within hours.


Yeah a little swirl.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#165 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:23 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
jasons wrote:Lookie at the Brownsville radar. A distinct LLC trying to wrap quickly but it’s going to make landfall within hours.


Yeah a little swirl.


Looks pretty far removed from what NHC is tracking.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#166 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:24 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#167 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:27 am

First few visible images Showing strong w and sw inflow into the convection well east of tampico. Need some more light but looks like we might have a TD or Ts..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#168 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:44 am

12z Best Track:

Location: 22.6°N 96.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#169 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:48 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#170 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:03 am

This is the circulation more north.

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1135892867141001217


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#171 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:15 am

Call me crazy, but 23N 95W and that repeated firing convection sure looks suspicious this morning.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#172 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:15 am

No more recon for this area.


REMARK: THE MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 19-006 WERE CANCELED BY
NHC AT 04/1215Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#173 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#174 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:32 am

Interesting eddy about to move ashore near Brownsville this morning. Could be several more embedded in 91L broad circulation. The presence of these eddies are the likely cause that 91L has not become a TC yet IMO. Too much disruption of inflow into a main low center. Fun to watch though......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#175 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:32 am

If this were August or September, all eyes would be glued to this thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#176 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:35 am

That is just a litle swirl. Ene of tampico has a llc. Curved low level inflow in all quads Deep convection Pretty straight forward.

I suppose we have to wait and see if this convection does out again. Looks fairly healthy thus far though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#177 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:36 am

Sustaining Overshooting Tops after DMAX NE of the LLC.
VIS sat clearly showing LL infeed as Eric pointed out earlier.
Looks like it may ramp.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#178 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:40 am

So how far inland is this suppose to go before it heads
toward the NE?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#179 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:58 am

Lower pressures & larger vorticity further down south from the small circulation east of Brownsville .
Yes, as a whole the system is just about of space to do anything. Great job by the GFS of showing not much organization with this system during the past couple of days.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#180 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:03 am

ML Swirl picking up.
Estimating center at red x.
Clear infeed seen as pointed out by blue arrow.
Many Cu Nims popping up.

Image
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