CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Great job by the GFS of showing not much organization with this system during the past couple of days.
Yep, as much as we bash the hell out of the gfs all season long have to give credit when credit is due. Now watch it turn around and will be showing a cat 5 hitting Miami and New Orleans in the next few cycles
Certainly was not an issue of having a fair amount of time over water. Diurnal waxing and waning of convection near the MLC (as well as north and west of center) was not able to fend off strong upper level winds enough for the dominant LLC or any competing low level feature to really consolidate.
As for the models, I gotta admit that In spite of zero model support, I was sure this broad gyre would have the time and space to consolidate. It''s true how we tend to rag on the various models for their inconsistency. I'd say that all of them were quite consistent in not
developing 91L and that is just as important as correctly sniffing out tropical development when development does occur.