ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#181 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:16 am

SoupBone wrote:If this were August or September, all eyes would be glued to this thread.



Not really. A disorganized blob of an invest, high shear, not much of any model support, and only 40% chance of any development which is a lot higher than what I’m thinking. Typical early season gulf slop. Nothing to be be concerned about.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#182 Postby lrak » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:24 am

That little swirl is bringing some showers our way. The bottom blob looks suspicious :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#183 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:24 am

Great job by the GFS of showing not much organization with this system during the past couple of days.


Yep, as much as we bash the hell out of the gfs all season long have to give credit when credit is due. Now watch it turn around and will be showing a cat 5 hitting Miami and New Orleans in the next few cycles :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#184 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:39 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
SoupBone wrote:If this were August or September, all eyes would be glued to this thread.



Not really. A disorganized blob of an invest, high shear, not much of any model support, and only 40% chance of any development which is a lot higher than what I’m thinking. Typical early season gulf slop. Nothing to be be concerned about.


My point was that typically those months would be more favorable, but since it's early June (and conditions aren't great), we're fortunate that this isn't an August/September setup.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#185 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:43 am

I remember when they gave an invest a 40% chance of development, then it dissipated and later became Harvey :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#186 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:51 am

StormLogic wrote:I remember when they gave an invest a 40% chance of development, then it dissipated and later became Harvey :lol:


Harvey had more "room to grow." Not so sure about this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#187 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:53 am

AnnularCane wrote:
StormLogic wrote:I remember when they gave an invest a 40% chance of development, then it dissipated and later became Harvey :lol:


Harvey had more "room to grow." Not so sure about this one.


Also it was August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#188 Postby Cypresso » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:00 am

ALERTHOUSTON
Flash Flood Watch Issued for Houston Tonight Through Thursday Morning


Weather Information
The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Houston from late Tuesday until Thursday morning. This means conditions are favorable for flooding to occur.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight as a surge of tropical moisture approaches Southeast Texas. The moisture combined with an upper level trough and favorable jet dynamics will lead to periods of heavy rain late tonight but more likely on Wednesday.

Rainfall rates could reach 2 to 3 inches per hour at times. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected across Southeast Texas by Wednesday evening with isolated totals exceeding 6 inches. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall along and east of the I-69 corridor.

Certainly is looking like only a rainfall event for our area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#189 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:01 am

cycloneye wrote:Also it was August.



That too! :lol: Still amazing he survived those hostile conditions as well as he did though. But anyway, back to 91L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#190 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:15 am

Looks like just a bit of rain for Texas. Too much shear across the NW Gulf for development.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#191 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:19 am

Mr. shear is at work today for sure!!! Wondering which models are picking up "everything" as we have some locals tooting 8"-10" of rain for our area. Not seeing that unless the shear relaxes quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#192 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:33 am

vbhoutex wrote:Mr. shear is at work today for sure!!! Wondering which models are picking up "everything" as we have some locals tooting 8"-10" of rain for our area. Not seeing that unless the shear relaxes quite a bit.


It's pretty amazing to see the range forecasts from 1" all the way to over 8". I get that rainfall forecasts are extremely difficult, as we've seen numerous times.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#193 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:34 am

I believe the shear is suppose to relax so maybe
the rain event is a real possibility.

vbhoutex wrote:Mr. shear is at work today for sure!!! Wondering which models are picking up "everything" as we have some locals tooting 8"-10" of rain for our area. Not seeing that unless the shear relaxes quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion: Recon for today was canceled

#194 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:36 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
Great job by the GFS of showing not much organization with this system during the past couple of days.


Yep, as much as we bash the hell out of the gfs all season long have to give credit when credit is due. Now watch it turn around and will be showing a cat 5 hitting Miami and New Orleans in the next few cycles :lol:


Certainly was not an issue of having a fair amount of time over water. Diurnal waxing and waning of convection near the MLC (as well as north and west of center) was not able to fend off strong upper level winds enough for the dominant LLC or any competing low level feature to really consolidate. :notworthy: As for the models, I gotta admit that In spite of zero model support, I was sure this broad gyre would have the time and space to consolidate. It''s true how we tend to rag on the various models for their inconsistency. I'd say that all of them were quite consistent in not developing 91L and that is just as important as correctly sniffing out tropical development when development does occur.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#195 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:54 am

Kinda reminds me of a rather bad horror movie of years ago.

"The Blob"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#196 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:28 am

Image

CMC showing some action on the 12z, here's that 6"+ they keep mentioning :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#197 Postby wxman22 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:58 am

vbhoutex wrote:Mr. shear is at work today for sure!!! Wondering which models are picking up "everything" as we have some locals tooting 8"-10" of rain for our area. Not seeing that unless the shear relaxes quite a bit.

Several of the mesoscale models are showing rainfall amounts of up to 6-10+ inches. The precipitable waters are forecast to be up to 2.6 inches which is really high for this early in the season,so even without an organized tropical system the setup is there for someone to get a lot of rain in a short amount of time tomorrow in Southeast Texas. Due to rainfall rates that could be as high as 2-3 inches of rain per hour, and training from the strong inflow from the gulf. Global models tend to have a hard time "sniffing" out rainfall potential in these mesoscale driven setups due to their lower resolution. Of course nothing is a guarantee when it comes to the weather but the potential is certainly there tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#198 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:08 pm

The Euro is showing nearly 14" east of Baytown, through Thursday night. The GFS is showing around 4.5" in that same spot and time frame.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#199 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:31 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized.
This system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico
later today or tonight and the chances of development into a
tropical depression have decreased. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission scheduled for today has been canceled.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the
Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. For more
information about the rainfall threat in the United States, please
see products issued by your local forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pereira/Roth/Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#200 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:55 pm

From what I've calculated from the latest model runs and looking at the Satellite imagery. I would not rule out a TS with this system. Yes it's a mess, but I wouldn't rule out a just before landfall RI scenario or over land intensification with this one. Will be a rainmaker for sure. SETX to LA all the way to MS will be soaked with copious amounts of rainfall, Heavy torrential downpours 2"-4" an hour type stuff maybe even 6"... SL
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