ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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Senobia
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#201 Postby Senobia » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:06 pm

I, and many more people in SETX, are certainly hoping the "rain event" doesn't happen - or any "event" for that matter. We do not need that kind of rain here. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#202 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:06 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#203 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:25 pm

Senobia wrote:I, and many more people in SETX, are certainly hoping the "rain event" doesn't happen - or any "event" for that matter. We do not need that kind of rain here. :roll:


None of us want this, but there's nothing else we can do but to prepare for it. I'm going to mow and clean out the gutters and pick up the yard for sure. Feeling cute, might get some sandbags, idk... :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#204 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:49 pm

StormLogic wrote:
Senobia wrote:I, and many more people in SETX, are certainly hoping the "rain event" doesn't happen - or any "event" for that matter. We do not need that kind of rain here. :roll:


None of us want this, but there's nothing else we can do but to prepare for it. I'm going to mow and clean out the gutters and pick up the yard for sure. Feeling cute, might get some sandbags, idk... :lol:


Our house here in Covington, La has no gutters. Basic thunderstorms turn our house into a water fall. If we pick up some 2-3" hr rates here it sure will be a sight to see lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#205 Postby StormLogic » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:57 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
StormLogic wrote:
Senobia wrote:I, and many more people in SETX, are certainly hoping the "rain event" doesn't happen - or any "event" for that matter. We do not need that kind of rain here. :roll:


None of us want this, but there's nothing else we can do but to prepare for it. I'm going to mow and clean out the gutters and pick up the yard for sure. Feeling cute, might get some sandbags, idk... :lol:


Our house here in Covington, La has no gutters. Basic thunderstorms turn our house into a water fall. If we pick up some 2-3" hr rates here it sure will be a sight to see lol.


You'll definetly have some soil missing where the water hits from falling from the edges of your roof for sure lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#206 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:40 pm

Looks like the Euro has pushed the heaviest rains off to the east slightly, closer to High island,Port Arthur, Orange, Beaumont and off toward Lake Charles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#207 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:44 pm

As it's absolutely not needed there, please send the moisture this way; we've been baking under the death ridge here for weeks without even a sprinkle. Ground is cracking and small streams are drying. From historic flooding to the early stages of drought within half a day's drive.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#208 Postby Dylan » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:46 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#209 Postby jasons » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 pm

I have missed out on the last couple of rain events and I am going on three weeks without a decent rainfall, so yes, I could use some rain - but just a few inches, not a flood. It’s usually feast or famine for us though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#210 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:05 pm

jasons wrote:I have missed out on the last couple of rain events and I am going on three weeks without a decent rainfall, so yes, I could use some rain - but just a few inches, not a flood. It’s usually feast or famine for us though.


Obviously one model, and one model run, but the Euro says 1" for you.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#211 Postby MGC » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:06 pm

91L is rapidly falling apart. Just going to be a heavy rainmaker IMO.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#212 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:12 pm

Lots of disturbed weather still offshore.
Doesn’t the EURO show this barely onshore along
TX coastline as it moves N to NE later in the week?
As we all should know we don’t need to have an organized tropical system to experience serious flooding issues.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#213 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:19 pm

StormLogic wrote:From what I've calculated from the latest model runs and looking at the Satellite imagery. I would not rule out a TS with this system. Yes it's a mess, but I wouldn't rule out a just before landfall RI scenario or over land intensification with this one. Will be a rainmaker for sure. SETX to LA all the way to MS will be soaked with copious amounts of rainfall, Heavy torrential downpours 2"-4" an hour type stuff maybe even 6"... SL


Wind shear increases to 40-50 kts along the TX coast and across the NW Gulf. I'd rule out a RI scenario.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#214 Postby Jagno » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:54 pm

SoupBone wrote:Looks like the Euro has pushed the heaviest rains off to the east slightly, closer to High island,Port Arthur, Orange, Beaumont and off toward Lake Charles.


Not Great! I work in SE TX and live in SW Louisiana so it sounds like I'll catch it coming and going for the next few days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#215 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:28 pm

The NHC version of bones.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad
area of low pressure previously over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
has weakened to a trough near the lower Texas and northeastern
Mexico coasts, and development of this system is no longer
expected. However, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the
Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. For more
information about the rainfall threat in the United States, please
see products issued by your local forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#216 Postby shiny-pebble » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:04 pm

This was an odd system. There were multiple times where it really seemed like it would organize but then it just didn't and fell apart.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#217 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:11 pm

in june system have hard time too form unless in good area to form
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#218 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:The NHC version of bones.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad
area of low pressure previously over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
has weakened to a trough near the lower Texas and northeastern
Mexico coasts, and development of this system is no longer
expected. However, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of eastern Mexico, southeastern Texas and the
Lower Mississippi Valley during the next few days. For more
information about the rainfall threat in the United States, please
see products issued by your local forecast office and the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#219 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:22 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:This was an odd system. There were multiple times where it really seemed like it would organize but then it just didn't and fell apart.

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It's too early with all the shear. August or September? That sucker's a Cat 1 probably quickly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#220 Postby Steve » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:39 pm

shiny-pebble wrote:This was an odd system. There were multiple times where it really seemed like it would organize but then it just didn't and fell apart.

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Could be that the low coalesces in e or setx where a deeper low should be by Thursday or Friday. Doesn’t look like much, but it should be cool on satellite and ought to knock back some of the heat on the gulf coast. I’m assuming there will be gales or close offshore, so it’s going to probably end up being a mildly notable invest. CMC brings a lot of rain into Texas and may be the most bullish. Nam likes ms/al border for the most rain. We’ll see.
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