ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[stormlover2013]

Tex-la needs to pay attention

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 0-240.html

[cycloneye]

12z guidance:

[USTropics]

The overnight ECMWF run (00z) did close off a circulation with eventual landfall near Tampico, Mexico. See high-resolution ECMWF animated gif below (animation starts on Monday, system struggles to escape coast before then):



GFS 00z run had a very similar evolution:

[Aric Dunn]

there are a lot of EUro members more offshore. and some take it to hurricane strength.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc with euro idea


Cmc on board with euro, riding it up Texas coast as a weak prob trop storm


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60112&fh=6

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF develops 91L and rounds the coast to be in Louisiana at 144 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

Notice how it becomes weaker as it tracks farther north into Texas and Louisiana. Strong wind shear is expected over the northern Gulf, which will mainly lead to a heavy rainfall threat across these areas.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:
Notice how it becomes weaker as it tracks farther north into Texas and Louisiana. Strong wind shear is expected over the northern Gulf, which will mainly lead to a heavy rainfall threat across these areas.

Looks like it would be more of a rainmaker for Louisiana compared to Texas? Texas looks to be on the dry side of the storm.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
Notice how it becomes weaker as it tracks farther north into Texas and Louisiana. Strong wind shear is expected over the northern Gulf, which will mainly lead to a heavy rainfall threat across these areas.

Looks like it would be more of a rainmaker for Louisiana compared to Texas? Texas looks to be on the dry side of the storm.

That's what you would normally expected, but that's not the case this time around. An approaching trough over the SW US will help to transport tropical moisture northward across Texas as the disturbance moves up the coast of Mexico. In fact, Texas might see more rain than Louisiana from this system.

[Kingarabian]

GFS which was bullish over the EPAC in regards to development from this CAG continues to not show much if any development. What gives with this model?

[Nimbus]

Storm track was headed inland near Tampico earlier and now moisture forecast to be pulled north by a digging cold front.
At least the high shear forecast is positive for hindering development into something Wxman57 needs to report.

[srainhoutx]

Storm track was headed inland near Tampico earlier and now moisture forecast to be pulled north by a digging cold front.
At least the high shear forecast is positive for hindering development into something Wxman57 needs to report.

Wxman57 had a surgical procedure the day before yesterday. I believe he faces another surgery within 10 days. Rest assured he will return soon!

[stormlover2013]

I know it’s the nam and it sucks but it’s interesting

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0212&fh=84

[cycloneye]

[Steve]

HWRF likes Cocodrie area around 90 hours as a somewhat formidable 990mb system with the bulk of the rain stretched out north. Looks faster and has a more random track
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0300&fh=90

[N2FSU]

Another east shift:

[chaser1]

HWRF (based on latest 0Z from last night) is continuing to trend further south and stronger, depicting 991mb in 54 hours (from last night) to the southeast of Brownsville. Will be curious to see how it's 12Z looks.

[chaser1]

Does anyone recall at what time the HWRF and HMON 12Z runs finally come out?