ATL: Invest 93L

[crownweather]

My thoughts on Invest 93-L. It's gotten my interest a little more since yesterday.

https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1149676006950653952
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1149676009739960321
https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1149676011669348352

The intensity guidance are usually bullish on areas of interest in this region. My question is are conditions even remotely favorable in the Caribbean?

In the Caribbean - No. Wind shear is way too strong right now. From where 93L to about the Lesser Antilles, wind shear values are actually low enough to support development per CIMSS. WV satellite imagery, however, shows quite a bit of dry air starting around 47W Longitude.

[abajan]

To my untrained eye, it seems surprisingly healthy looking at the moment.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A small area of persistent shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a tropical wave is centered about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of the
wave is possible during the next day or so while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SoupBone]

2 PM TWO:

A small area of persistent shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with a tropical wave is centered about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of the
wave is possible during the next day or so while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Interesting. A 10% increase from yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Is almost over.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Barry, located just south of the Louisiana coast.

1. Shower activity has become less organized since yesterday in
association with a tropical wave located about midway between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. Any development of the
wave is expected to be slow to occur during the next few days while
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions
are expected to become unfavorable for development by early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds are not that bad. Problem is it got obliterated by a SAL surge today. Another month or so and the SAL should be less of an issue.

[northjaxpro]

Upper-level winds are not that bad. Problem is it got obliterated by a SAL surge today. Another month or so and the SAL should be less of an issue.

Exactly. By mid August, things should get more conducive for potential tropical cyclone development in the Far Eastern North Atlantic.
SAL influence should lessen considerably by the beginning of August.

[crownweather]

2 am TWO:

Shower activity has become slightly more organized during the
past several hours in association with a tropical wave located about
midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands.
Development, if any, of the wave is expected to be slow to occur
during the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20
mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$

[gfsperpendicular]

Now back down to 10/10.

[Aric Dunn]

Sure looks like there has been a small well-defined circ popping in and out of the convection. scat winds likely wont pick it being so small. but looking interesting this morning..

[chaser1]

Yep, it seems to be holding it's own but it's moving at a pretty fast westward clip right now. Upper level shear is pretty nasty once it gets into the Caribbean though. On another note, the wave in the Eastern Caribbean is flaring up nicely as well today. Largely as a result of the upper level diffluence. Still, I do see a weak mid level twist associated with it and if it could somehow gain enough latitude to make it to the N.W. Caribbean, it would appear to then be in a far less hostile upper air environment for a brief time.

[cycloneye]

Next.

A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Windward Islands is producing a few showers.
Significant development of this system is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Taffy]

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