EPAC: INVEST 98E

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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: INVEST 98E

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:30 pm

EP, 98, 2019071706, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1225W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 98, 2019071712, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1233W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 98, 2019071718, , BEST, 0, 119N, 1239W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS014, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 98, 2019071800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1245W, 20, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 60, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, ep742019 to ep982019,
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cycloneye
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EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:32 pm

Post away.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:Post away.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120357
Oops, duplicate.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Post away.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120357
Oops, duplicate.


Nancy was first so I merged thread.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:28 pm

Looks like this one has no chance.

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday, and the chances for
tropical cyclone formation appears to be diminishing. The low
is expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:Looks like this one has no chance.

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday, and the chances for
tropical cyclone formation appears to be diminishing. The low
is expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


HMON/HWRF still show this becoming a weak Ts or a TD.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:59 pm

This is a long shot to form.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982019 07/18/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 19 19 21 24 26 24 22 19 16
V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 19 19 21 24 26 24 22 19 16
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 18 19 14 18 10 9 19 18 17 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 6 11 1 0 1 1 0 3 2
SHEAR DIR 322 308 297 310 319 333 339 318 287 255 269 257 240
SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 26.0 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 145 144 142 124 118 113 109 108 110 112 118
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 1
700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 63 61 55 56 52 49 43 42 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 0 -15 -16 -6 -39 -42 -47 -13 0 25 23
200 MB DIV 18 68 100 118 128 82 -12 -25 1 -54 -23 -47 -25
700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -5 -8 -9 -7 -2 0 -3 1 0 6
LAND (KM) 2221 2311 2357 2381 2385 2324 2228 2146 2093 2106 2138 2003 1817
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.5 15.4 17.3 18.8 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.9
LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.4 130.3 131.2 132.1 133.3 133.8 133.6 133.4 133.6 134.4 135.7 137.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 11 12 10 9 5 2 2 5 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 12 21 30 20 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 128.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982019 INVEST 07/18/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.33 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 3.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982019 INVEST 07/18/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:25 pm

2. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1500 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system remains
disorganized, and conditions are becoming less conducive for
tropical cyclone formation. The low is expected to move
west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:31 am

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located more than 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula have become less organized this
evening. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and
development of this system is not expected while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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