ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#21 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:59 pm

The 12Z GEFS is similar to prior GEFS runs with a good number of members becoming a TD in/near the Bahamas this weekend from what I think is 95L.
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USTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby USTropics » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:10 am

Starting to see an uptick in intensity models for 95L, could make a run at TD/TS in the Bahamas (a quick spinup like TD3 can't be ruled out):

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#23 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:02 am

USTropics wrote:Starting to see an uptick in intensity models for 95L, could make a run at TD/TS in the Bahamas (a quick spinup like TD3 can't be ruled out):

https://i.imgur.com/CLw63u1.jpg

remember that it say same with td4 it never become ts in Bahamas this going same area as td3
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:52 am

floridasun78 wrote:
USTropics wrote:Starting to see an uptick in intensity models for 95L, could make a run at TD/TS in the Bahamas (a quick spinup like TD3 can't be ruled out):

https://i.imgur.com/CLw63u1.jpg

remember that it say same with td4 it never become ts in Bahamas this going same area as td3


Circumstances are not the same all the time FLSun 78. I am not saying this will definitely develop, but conditions once 95L traverses northwest into The Bahamas region are better for potential gradual development in about 36-48 hours.Shear backs off considerably there in that region in that timeframe and convergence should be pretty good for 95L in that time as well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#25 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:17 am

Just a little interesting thing I picked up in 00Z runs of the Canadian, ICON and NAM and even the GFS Legacy . Normally, I do not follow these model runs for TC development, especially the NAM.
..........
However, I still at times look at the old GFS. Each of these models
mentioned above are showing energy developing on the base of the deepening mid-level trough, which extends down southward into the Southeast GOM, and actually down to the Yucatan Peninsula, beginning on Thursday.. They each develop a surface Low in the 1010-1012 mb range on Friday morning, and moves it n/ne up the SW coast of Florida and across the peninsula, to eventually exit off the Northeast Florida.coast by Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, these models move 95L through the Bahamas and skirts the Florida East Coast and eventually northeast this weekend without closing off the system.

So, the aforementioned models I point out develop a TD in the SE GOM this weekend. Again, just something to watch the next couple of days to see if the newly updated GFS and EURO picks up on this in future runs during the next 36 hours or so.
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