ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Intense and continuous lightning firing off.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection re firing with with the low level circ. Severely running out of time

[GCANE]

Very vigorous lightning. More than yesterday morning.
Given no 200mb vort / PV Streamer around this, a strong updraft could push shear out of the way.

[Nimbus]

Convection re firing with with the low level circ. Severely running out of time

Lowest surface pressure I saw was 1010 back in Granada and this mornings first visible will probably look like the convection is being sheared to the north of the LLC to you.

[Aric Dunn]

The low level structure looks much better today on the North through the Se quads. I dont think the vorticity and structure is going to weaken like the models have shown. In fact it has become better defined.

Going to have to keep what this for western carrib development where the shear drops off in 36 hours.

[GCANE]

355K PV to its west clears out in 24hrs, therefore LL vorts should remain intact.
Biggest issue I see is mid-level dry air.
Marine instability increases around Jamaica which may compensate for the dry-air in terms of any development.

[GCANE]

Convection intensity is now organizing more toward the center.
Could be creating a warm core.

[GCANE]

355K PV Streamer to the west already weakening.
If there is a warm core and can hang on, may get something as soon as the shear drops.

[SouthFloridawx]

It's going through the highest area of shear now. Not looking to bad for 40 + knots of wind shear.

[GCANE]

Looks like winds just above the surface are start to turn: NW to SE in the area around 14.9N 72W

[northjaxpro]

If this can get through the daunting shear the next 24 hours or so, this may have a chance to resurrect itself as it gets near the Yucatan Peninsula. Tough for it to get through that shear intact. We shall see..

[wxman57]

The shear isn't predicted to let up before the wave hits Central America later this week. Pretty close to zero chance of development, still. And if it even THINKS about tracking toward the southern Gulf, it'll be hit by very strong ENE wind shear. This disturbance is toast...

[GCANE]

Given that the heavy convection is shear induced, it would mean any center would to the SE of the convection.
Looking at the cloud patterns, if there is a center, it would be around 15N 70W IMHO.
Something is starting to fire there now, keeping an eye on it.

[NotSparta]

The shear isn't predicted to let up before the wave hits Central America later this week. Pretty close to zero chance of development, still. And if it even THINKS about tracking toward the southern Gulf, it'll be hit by very strong ENE wind shear. This disturbance is toast...

Yeah, the Gulf is ruled by upper troughing for now so even if ex-96L makes it there there's little chance it can become strong

[northjaxpro]

The shear isn't predicted to let up before the wave hits Central America later this week. Pretty close to zero chance of development, still. And if it even THINKS about tracking toward the southern Gulf, it'll be hit by very strong ENE wind shear. This disturbance is toast...

Well then 57 I guess its safe to assume that you can summon upon Bones to make his final diagnosis now?

[Audreyadele]

I appreciate the discussion. Thanks for taking the time to post.

[Aric Dunn]

low level vort/wave axis is almost through the Shear it can be seen on sat and TPW. it is almost south of Jamaica and it will reach the western carrib and much lower shear tomorrow. If there is any convergence left and it slows down it will have one last shot.

Shear drops off a lot just passed Jamaica.

[floridasun78]

low level vort/wave axis is almost through the Shear it can be seen on sat and TPW. it is almost south of Jamaica and it will reach the western carrib and much lower shear tomorrow. If there is any convergence left and it slows down it will have one last shot.

Shear drops off a lot just passed Jamaica.

96l done aric dunn rest now because few week you want a day too rest because we have system after system so go enjoy low time in tropical

[Aric Dunn]

low level vort/wave axis is almost through the Shear it can be seen on sat and TPW. it is almost south of Jamaica and it will reach the western carrib and much lower shear tomorrow. If there is any convergence left and it slows down it will have one last shot.

Shear drops off a lot just passed Jamaica.

96l done aric dunn rest now because few week you want a day too rest because we have system after system so go enjoy low time in tropical

lol nooooo

[floridasun78]

ok fat lady have spoke say 96l is done let close her final chapter as ex96 pass throught carribbean