ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#321 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:59 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The shear isn't predicted to let up before the wave hits Central America later this week. Pretty close to zero chance of development, still. And if it even THINKS about tracking toward the southern Gulf, it'll be hit by very strong ENE wind shear. This disturbance is toast...


Well then 57 I guess its safe to assume that you can summon upon Bones to make his final diagnosis now?


Bones says it's not worth his time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#322 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The shear isn't predicted to let up before the wave hits Central America later this week. Pretty close to zero chance of development, still. And if it even THINKS about tracking toward the southern Gulf, it'll be hit by very strong ENE wind shear. This disturbance is toast...


Well then 57 I guess its safe to assume that you can summon upon Bones to make his final diagnosis now?


Bones says it's not worth his time.

bone have spoking so let close this topic and see 96l other season
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#323 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:01 am

How many times have we seen waves do nothing until they get in the west Carib and then develop.
This still has a well structed 500mb vort.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#324 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:20 am

GCANE wrote:How many times have we seen waves do nothing until they get in the west Carib and then develop.
This still has a well structed 500mb vort.


Just have to keep watching. Everyone keeps saying its dead but they keep checking this thread... lol if they think its dead stop posting lol

The low level vort and wave axis are passing jamaica now heading into much lower shear.

Appears there is still some convergence this morning so we will see what happens.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#325 Postby abajan » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:29 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:How many times have we seen waves do nothing until they get in the west Carib and then develop.
This still has a well structed 500mb vort.


Just have to keep watching. Everyone keeps saying its dead but they keep checking this thread... lol if they think its dead stop posting lol

The low level vort and wave axis are passing jamaica now heading into much lower shear.

Appears there is still some convergence this morning so we will see what happens.


If this reawakens it will be one of the most spectacular comebacks of all time! You have the faith of a mustard seed. :P
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#326 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:55 am

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:How many times have we seen waves do nothing until they get in the west Carib and then develop.
This still has a well structed 500mb vort.


Just have to keep watching. Everyone keeps saying its dead but they keep checking this thread... lol if they think its dead stop posting lol

The low level vort and wave axis are passing jamaica now heading into much lower shear.

Appears there is still some convergence this morning so we will see what happens.


If this reawakens it will be one of the most spectacular comebacks of all time! You have the faith of a mustard seed. :P


Lol has nothing to do with faith... just have learned my lesson over the years. Until it is inland or in another basin... i will always watch it without any bias..
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#327 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:45 am

Shear is dropping.
700mb west of 500mb.
Its going to be about watching mid-level vort and seeing if VHTs fire and push the angular momentum to the surface.





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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#328 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:32 am

Just NE of 15N 80W.
Looks like a VHT on vis satellite.
Tons of lightning.
In a dropping shear environment.
Its small but maybe something to keep an eye on.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#329 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:49 pm

Looks like its been firing in the same place for the last hour and half.
Shear should drop to near zero here in the next 6 hrs.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#330 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:53 pm

Neither upper-level winds nor low-level trades are conducive for development of this wave.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#331 Postby Frank P » Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:54 am

It must have transformed into a zombie as it now is the only noticeable feature in the Atlantic basin on the IR this morning, our slow August continues.... not really a bad thing all in all .. :D
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#332 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:11 am

700mb vort is weak but distinguishable.
Convection firing from shear.
Need to see if this washes out or if a tower can form.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#333 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:55 am

It’s not going to form. There is nothing there
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