WPAC: INVEST 98W

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Nancy Smar
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WPAC: INVEST 98W

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:52 pm

98W.INVEST.15kts.994mb.21N.153E
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:55 pm

Latest 2 GFS runs develops both 97W and 98W as separate systems, unlike before both merge into a one system.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:39 am

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.3N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POTENTIAL LOWER LEVEL BANDING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A RECENT
162355Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED TIGHT AND WEAK LLC WITH A SMALL 20 KNOT
WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW,
AND FAVORABLE (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW THE LLC REMAINING WEAK AND MOVING
SOUTHWEST WITHOUT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH. GFS SHOWS INTENSIFICATION WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS OWN CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:59 am

The recently busted Euro doesn't develop this only 97W but very weak.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:41 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 22N 155E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:54 am

98W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 17, 2019:

Location: 22.3°N 155.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Aug 17, 2019 7:04 am

98W INVEST 190817 1200 22.3N 154.6E WPAC 20 1005
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 155.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY
607 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BEING HEAVILY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN
180256Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELLIPTICAL
LLCC LARGELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED
FROM THE NORTH. AN 180008Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL SWATHS OF
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC. 98W IS
CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27 TO
28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A 00Z SOUNDING OF
MINAMITORIJIMA (RJAM), APPROXIMATELY 121 NM NORTHEAST OF 98W, SHOWS
DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF DRY, STABLE AIR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED INTO A
POLEWARD MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:35 am

Wouldn't be surprised to maybe see some quick classification of a short lived storm if it can maintain the convection.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:46 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.0N 151.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY
474 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A
190438Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ CONFIRMS A COMPLETE LACK OF OVERHEAD DEEP
CONVECTION. AN 182314Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. 98W IS CURRENLTY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NONEXISTENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY HIGH (35 TO
40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKED BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:53 am

98W INVEST 190820 0600 27.0N 153.3E WPAC 15 1009
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:44 pm

98W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 20, 2019:

Location: 27.2°N 154.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
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