EPAC: INVEST 96E

[cycloneye]

Location: 13.7°N 126.1°W
Maximum Winds: 15 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[Ntxw]

This one might be worth watching also. Going west and SSTs are now warmer further north. Might do what Erick did.

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962019 08/17/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 18 19 21 26 33 41 46 52 53 56 57
V (KT) LAND 15 16 18 19 21 26 33 41 46 52 53 56 57
V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 22 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 18 17 14 14 15 12 10 10 18 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 -5 -4 -7
SHEAR DIR 81 94 105 115 110 102 80 75 90 86 104 91 96
SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 144 144 146 151 155 156 154 150 149 151
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 67 67 67 69 69 67 66 61 59 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -1 6 14 16 25 21 19 9 12 12 19 27
200 MB DIV 46 39 38 45 47 69 74 58 45 53 62 53 42
700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 5
LAND (KM) 1902 1951 1991 2039 2093 2213 2356 2492 2439 2250 2088 1943 1863
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.7 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.1 10.3
LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.2 127.6 128.0 129.0 130.2 131.7 133.5 135.4 137.1 138.9 140.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 22 22 20 19 19 22 34 28 22 18 23 29 42

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 18. 26. 31. 37. 38. 41. 42.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 13.7 126.1

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.18 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Ntxw]

12 Euro has this going south of Hawaii and picking up a lot of ACE.

[Kingarabian]

I'm skeptical about the long range solutions from both the GFS and Euro after we saw what happened with Gil and and Flossie. But in the short medium range it's looking likely that we'll see some sort of TS.

[Kingarabian]

This could definitely change but it's also important to note, not much support from the CMC and UKMET. The CMC has been surprisingly decent this season.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh wow 12z GFS and ECMWF actually show this.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro:

12z GFS:


Shear over Hawaii continues to be inhibiting but is forecast to relax in the next 5-7days. Despite the GFS and Euro showing a defined hurricane close to the Hawaiian islands in about 9-10 days, in about 8-9 days, the 12z GFS and 12z Euro show a low level trough returning over the main Hawaiian Islands. If this verifies, it will likely shear apart any storm that gets close to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962019 08/17/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 18 19 21 25 31 38 46 50 53 57 58
V (KT) LAND 15 17 18 19 21 25 31 38 46 50 53 57 58
V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 19 21 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 7 7 9 13 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 -5 -6 -8
SHEAR DIR 92 109 120 117 115 109 94 100 95 74 82 92 108
SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 141 140 141 146 152 154 151 150 147 147 146
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 62 65 65 65 63 64 61 64 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 5
850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 30 28 37 43 39 33 28 29 22 30 27
200 MB DIV 41 28 40 48 60 81 74 71 57 68 31 24 -5
700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 5
LAND (KM) 1858 1885 1926 1989 2045 2161 2310 2452 2218 1973 1756 1558 1390
LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.6 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.0
LONG(DEG W) 126.2 126.7 127.1 127.6 128.1 129.2 130.8 132.8 135.1 137.5 139.8 142.1 144.4
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 7 9 10 12 11 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 19 18 21 23 16 14 18 22 20 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 31. 35. 38. 42. 43.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 14.4 126.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 6.0% 19.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.0% 6.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to have much weaker heights compared to the Euro with the 18z now showing this recurving sharply north before reaching 140W.

[Yellow Evan]

18/0000 UTC 15.9N 126.9W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2019081800, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1260W, 20, 1010, DB

[Yellow Evan]

Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh wow 12z GFS and ECMWF actually show this.

Don't think that is 96E anyway.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962019 08/18/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 34 40 46 51 55 58 60
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 28 34 40 46 51 55 58 60
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 25 28 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 11 13 10 11 10 7 4 7 9 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -5 -4 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -7 -6 -5
SHEAR DIR 96 112 116 114 119 93 82 91 99 82 91 83 89
SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.1 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.0 28.1
POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 137 137 145 150 144 142 144 148 146 147
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 61 63 63 60 59 58 57 59 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 31 37 42 42 31 28 22 23 27 32 26
200 MB DIV 35 39 48 57 71 69 60 48 46 43 19 -12 -10
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 1 1 0 1 1
LAND (KM) 1799 1818 1859 1915 1959 2100 2252 2286 2022 1767 1513 1272 1048
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.4 13.7 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.4 126.8 127.4 127.9 129.5 131.5 133.9 136.4 138.9 141.6 144.5 147.3
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 9 11 12 12 13 14 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 18 16 20 20 10 13 16 26 11 15

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 126.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.42 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 5.4% 8.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 3.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/18/19 00 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING

[Kingarabian]

Yup, Euro barely develops this now. GFS on its own with its strong solutions.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has
the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of the week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro continues with weak development and the CMC continues to show nothing.

12z UKMET and GFS show development.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has
the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of the week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Wrong system. This is currently at 0/0.