ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like everything is taking a big dive to the south.
Nice W to E Feeder Band Inplace.
Tons and tons of vortical hot towers firing all over.



https://i.imgur.com/vFE94vM.png

Yeah that is what I mentioned earlier how the meso models showed all this back building to the SE


There is something down in that area well offshore.

[GCANE]

One station, pretty far south, just shifted winds from south to west at 12 knots.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=khhv

[Aric Dunn]

One station, pretty far south, just shifted winds from south to west at 12 knots.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=khhv

its pretty straight forward. and a lot of observations to go off of.

[floridasun78]

close to coast will limit it becoming td unless new low form

[GCANE]

Two stations now reporting west winds

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

close to coast will limit it becoming td unless new low form

you are looking at the wrong thing..

[MGC]

Looks like something it trying to spin up. Area of storms don't looks like it moving much. I don't like it when an area of thunderstorms sits over the GOM in August and festers. Could we be looking at another Humberto type situation?......MGC

[Stormcenter]

The developments today do not surprise me one bit.
You could see the possibility a mile away yesterday.

[Steve]

The developments today do not surprise me one bit.
You could see the possibility a mile away yesterday.

Yeah, it’s not a surprise because of some of the conditions. But what would ever have been the ceiling, invest? TD? I guess we will see. NAM last night was continuing to show pulses which would mean this should die off tonight and reform toward morning. Whether that’s offshore or inland by then is anyone’s guess.

On the flip side, 16Z HRRR does show depiction of a nice spin up just south of the swla coast within its 18 hour run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82416&fh=2

—————
Hey mods. Y’all might want to tighten up the political ads since y’all banned politics.

[Steve]

RGEM 12z traces a center ENE toward the SC or SE LA Coast. Looks like a big push from the NW sort of stretches the energy Into frontal type energy SW/NE across New Orleans, Slidell and the MS Gulf Coast Sunday. If the timing is right with daytime heating, obviously you don’t want to be under training and hope that the bands/lines continue to move toward the East rather than refiring over you.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2412&fh=16

[GCANE]

Wish those stations would have pressure sensors.
Closing off on radar.
2 Feeder Bands seen on radar.
More are likely, just out of range.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is right over the top of this.

[SoupBone]

Still nothing in North Houston.

[TheProfessor]

I'm not surprised to see the storm developing. This storm's greatest roadblock is the fact that it was modeled to move on shore too quickly. However, if the storm stays over water for any extended period it would not surprise me one bit if it made a run at tropical depression or storm.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like something it trying to spin up. Area of storms don't looks like it moving much. I don't like it when an area of thunderstorms sits over the GOM in August and festers. Could we be looking at another Humberto type situation?......MGC

It çan happen. Humberto became a hurricane in the NW Gulf within just 24 hours back in 2007. An amazing tropical cyclone.

[DioBrando]

Looks like something it trying to spin up. Area of storms don't looks like it moving much. I don't like it when an area of thunderstorms sits over the GOM in August and festers. Could we be looking at another Humberto type situation?......MGC

It çan happen. Humberto became a hurricane in the NW Gulf within just 24 hours back in 2007. An amazing tropical cyclone.

Was just thinking about that scenario.

[CrazyC83]

If the southern center is taking over, I could see the probs increase dramatically. And, if we remember from 12 years ago, things can go kaboom in a hurry...

[GCANE]

Not sure if this took a sudden dive to the south out of radar range, or if it just fell apart.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure if this took a sudden dive to the south out of radar range, or if it just fell apart.

it for sure has sagged to the south. was already on the edge of radar range as well. just had some very high cold tops so radar was lighting up. 30 to 60 kt feet.