ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[tolakram]

Im not going to read the first few pages... just because i don't want to read the " its too dry" or "its dead" "never going to develop" crap.. especially after the first two weeks of that with pre dorian..

I hope everyone has learned to never say never.. dont declare anything dead until its inland etc..


As for this wave.. as many probably have already alluded too. threat to Carib and later on the US is again rather High..

No one said that, pretty much everyone expects this to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

Im not going to read the first few pages... just because i don't want to read the " its too dry" or "its dead" "never going to develop" crap.. especially after the first two weeks of that with pre dorian..

I hope everyone has learned to never say never.. dont declare anything dead until its inland etc..


As for this wave.. as many probably have already alluded too. threat to Carib and later on the US is again rather High..

No one said that, pretty much everyone expects this to develop.

Ok good.. lol.. though you could be trying to trick me.. ?

[GCANE]

Much hotter than normal sea-surface temps in the MDR

https://i.imgur.com/o2BbQ6W.png

How long will it take for the waters east of South Florida and surrounding the Bahamas to warm up again? I thought Dorian soaked them up pretty good.

I don't have any hard scientific evidence, but I heard some time ago it takes about 1 week as a rule of thumb for conditions to snap back after a major TC goes thru.

[GCANE]

https://i.imgur.com/qRYca77.png

What's that area in yellow to the west of 94l?

Nothing to talk about.

[HurricaneBelle]

How long will it take for the waters east of South Florida and surrounding the Bahamas to warm up again? I thought Dorian soaked them up pretty good.

Dorian was a relatively small storm when it was in the Bahamas, and looking at the latest SST map on Tropical Tidbits, there's only a small area near Abaco and Grand Bahama where SSTs are 26C, as opposed to the much larger surrounding area where it's 29C. And that's assuming 94L showed up there today; by the time it would potentially get there (10-12 days) it'll be warm just like the rest. So Dorian's wake won't be bothering 94L should it take a similar track.

[DioBrando]

How long will it take for the waters east of South Florida and surrounding the Bahamas to warm up again? I thought Dorian soaked them up pretty good.

Dorian was a relatively small storm when it was in the Bahamas, and looking at the latest SST map on Tropical Tidbits, there's only a small area near Abaco and Grand Bahama where SSTs are 26C, as opposed to the much larger surrounding area where it's 29C. And that's assuming 94L showed up there today; by the time it would potentially get there (10-12 days) it'll be warm just like the rest. So Dorian's wake won't be bothering 94L should it take a similar track.

Dude I personally wonder why the models are bearish on this invest when it has a better environment than Dorian. Could it be current structure and size, or the suppressed wave?
I personally wonder what potential analogs are.
I cannot trust model runs especially before the events of Dorian.

[bqknight]

Convection is firing a bit now actually. The wave behind it is coming offshore too now. Would be surprised if one of the two don't develop.

[DioBrando]

Convection is firing a bit now actually. The wave behind it is coming offshore too now. Would be surprised if one of the two don't develop.

I'm wondering if:
1) 94L becomes Imelda due to slow development and the wave behind it becomes Humberto instead
2) Twin majors

[gatorcane]

A broad area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Little development, if any, of this disturbance is expected for the
next couple of days, but environmental conditions are likely to
become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by Tuesday
or Wednesday while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Convection is firing a bit now actually. The wave behind it is coming offshore too now. Would be surprised if one of the two don't develop.

I'm wondering if:
1) 94L becomes Imelda due to slow development and the wave behind it becomes Humberto instead
2) Twin majors

I think 94L becomes Humberto, and the future 95L (wave behind it) becomes the infamous “I” storm Imelda. Humberto is weak and short-lived while Imelda becomes a significant storm, just my two cents.

[DioBrando]

Convection is firing a bit now actually. The wave behind it is coming offshore too now. Would be surprised if one of the two don't develop.

I'm wondering if:
1) 94L becomes Imelda due to slow development and the wave behind it becomes Humberto instead
2) Twin majors

I think 94L becomes Humberto, and the future 95L (wave behind it) becomes the infamous “I” storm Imelda. Humberto is weak and short-lived while Imelda becomes a significant storm, just my two cents.

Was thinking twin majors... and both split up... but I could be wrong.... near pristine conditions

[gatorcane]

I can certainly see why the GFS shows this invest getting squashed by the next wave rolling off Africa

And the name Imelda is about as bad as Irma

[DioBrando]

I can certainly see why the GFS shows this invest getting squashed by the next wave rolling off Africa

And the name Imelda is about as bad as Irma

https://i.postimg.cc/hGgKvzbX/goes16-ir-eatl-201909062034.jpg

What if the wave behind 94L gets humberto first? Remember Helene and Isaac last year?

[Hurricaneman]

My thinking is this gets absorbed by the wave behind in a few days

[DioBrando]

My thinking is this gets absorbed by the wave behind in a few days

Or possibly a Helene and Isaac scenario where 94L gets Imelda and the wave behind gets Humberto

[ouragans]

Euro Ensemble sees that wave over Africa crossing the LA on September 16th. That may explain why Euro does not develop 94L. However, 94L is on Euro Ensemble, making a sharp NNW turn by 45-50W

[DioBrando]

Euro Ensemble sees that wave over Africa crossing the LA on September 16th. That may explain with Euro does not develop 94L. However, 94L is on Euro Ensemble, making a sharp NNW turn by 45-50W

https://imgur.com/USzROZM

The LA?

[USTropics]

Euro Ensemble sees that wave over Africa crossing the LA on September 16th. That may explain with Euro does not develop 94L. However, 94L is on Euro Ensemble, making a sharp NNW turn by 45-50W

https://imgur.com/USzROZM

The LA?

Lesser Antilles in this instance.

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro Ensemble sees that wave over Africa crossing the LA on September 16th. That may explain with Euro does not develop 94L. However, 94L is on Euro Ensemble, making a sharp NNW turn by 45-50W

https://imgur.com/USzROZM

The LA?

The Lesser Antilles


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ouragans]

Sorry. The LA stands for Lesser Antilles. Euro 12z tries to develop 94L, but at the last frame, there's something near St Lucia or Martinique

I told my staff to be ready for Hugo's landfall 30th anniversary, and I am ready too. I'm surprised not to see my friend Gustywind monitoring 94L