ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[bqknight]

Looks like most models aren't developing this until around 50/51W - that's where it looks like we'll need to start paying attention.

Also - what is the CTCX model? It outperformed every model in intensity and track according to the below. My Googling says it's the experimental US Navy model. I assume that's not public?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al052019/

Or is there some sort of error in these numbers?

[canes92]

Looks like most models aren't developing this until around 50/51W - that's where it looks like we'll need to start paying attention.

Also - what is the CTCX model? It outperformed every model in intensity and track according to the below. My Googling says it's the experimental US Navy model. I assume that's not public?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al052019/

Or is there some sort of error in these numbers?

When is it expected to reach 50/51W?

[RL3AO]

Looks like most models aren't developing this until around 50/51W - that's where it looks like we'll need to start paying attention.

Also - what is the CTCX model? It outperformed every model in intensity and track according to the below. My Googling says it's the experimental US Navy model. I assume that's not public?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al052019/

Or is there some sort of error in these numbers?

I was able to find out after digging in a little bit. COTC is COAMPS TC that uses the NAVGEM for the initial and boundary conditions while CTCX is COAMPS TC but with GFS for initial and boundary conditions.

[wx98]

Looks like most models aren't developing this until around 50/51W - that's where it looks like we'll need to start paying attention.

Also - what is the CTCX model? It outperformed every model in intensity and track according to the below. My Googling says it's the experimental US Navy model. I assume that's not public?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al052019/

Or is there some sort of error in these numbers?

When is it expected to reach 50/51W?

According to the latest GFS it should be there Wednesday.

[Nimbus]

Not impressed this morning looks convectively anemic. Long range gfs has an eastcoast trof parked in place if it try’s to get near the Bahamas.

06z gfs brings it right off miami

Sure at 300+hrs out

06Z GFS has a much weaker system traveling west through the Caribbean then recurving across South Florida. 00Z GFS had a stronger storm turning earlier and going north of Puerto Rico. This time of year we see the Cape Verde storms develop sooner unless there is early shear from a tropical upper tropospheric trough in the mid Atlantic.

[NDG]

GFS somehow keeps the vorticity intact after it slams Hispaniola...

It doesn't really tracks it over the highest mountains of Hispaniola and systems with strong mid level circulations doesn't take much to redevelop a surface circulation after tracking over Hispaniola, if windshear is not present.

[chris_fit]

GFS somehow keeps the vorticity intact after it slams Hispaniola...

Then parks it off the SW FL coast and just weakens it? haaa They should not even run the GFS past 240 hours lol

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC develops this. 13z UKMET has a weak low by the end of its run.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC develops this. 13z UKMET has a weak low by the end of its run.

Now let's see if Euro wakes up.

[kevin]

I'm not saying we can draw a one-to-one comparison, but I do want to note that (if I recall correctly) EURO also struggled a bit with developing Dorian in the beginning. Was that just something that can happen to any model from time to time or is there any known reason that causes EURO to struggle more with systems that haven't actually formed yet?

[Highteeld]

I'm not saying we can draw a one-to-one comparison, but I do want to note that (if I recall correctly) EURO also struggled a bit with developing Dorian in the beginning. Was that just something that can happen to any model from time to time or is there any known reason that causes EURO to struggle more with systems that haven't actually formed yet?

Took ages for the Euro to latch on. GFS was the big winner (global models) in terms of TC genesis with Dorian

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

[jlauderdal]

I'm not saying we can draw a one-to-one comparison, but I do want to note that (if I recall correctly) EURO also struggled a bit with developing Dorian in the beginning. Was that just something that can happen to any model from time to time or is there any known reason that causes EURO to struggle more with systems that haven't actually formed yet?

Took ages for the Euro to latch on. GFS was the big winner (global models) in terms of TC genesis with Dorian

gfs did better with the track up the coast too, euro was stubborn with a track west

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png

[AutoPenalti]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_2.png

Is that a black hole?

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_4.png

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.png

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_4.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not saying we can draw a one-to-one comparison, but I do want to note that (if I recall correctly) EURO also struggled a bit with developing Dorian in the beginning. Was that just something that can happen to any model from time to time or is there any known reason that causes EURO to struggle more with systems that haven't actually formed yet?

Took ages for the Euro to latch on. GFS was the big winner (global models) in terms of TC genesis with Dorian

gfs did better with the track up the coast too, euro was stubborn with a track west

Overall the ECMWF did better with Dorian on track, absolutely terrible with genesis. ECMWF is actually great with genesis too, such as Fernand and Gabrielle as recent examples, but it's known to struggle with tiny storms out in a very dry, high MSLP environment. Dorian, Isaac, Beryl, Danny, and probably a few others I'm not remembering. ECMWF Ens. support is what we need to watch out for.