ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[Hammy]

Through 144hrs. Why is the Euro still so bearish on this system?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190906/630927b4f82ced7a49b97b6b748b5d3c.png


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Euro has a very poor history with systems in the tropics. Years ago even I noticed a tendency for the model to develop things out in the long term (7-10 days) and then suddenly back off once the seedling disturbance had actually come into existence.

[Kazmit]

06z GFS takes this on a Dorian-esque track, but more southern. Starts to deeped more substantially north of the Bahamas.

[chris_fit]

06GFS Run

[NDG]

Through 144hrs. Why is the Euro still so bearish on this system?

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The operational Euro has not done too well in this area for development, its ensembles are a bit more aggressive with development.

[plasticup]

06GFS Run

https://i.imgur.com/UHFNmI0.gif

The Bahamas really do not need this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like 94L will be a very small, compact storm that'll face many of the same challenges Dorian did. Also probably why the ECMWF is struggling, the model simply does not do well with TC genesis in the MDR with these tight, little storms embedded within a high MSLP environment.

[NDG]

06GFS Run

https://i.imgur.com/UHFNmI0.gif

The Bahamas really do not need this.

No they don't, but is way way too early to know for sure where it will be tracking to, what scares me is that the pattern this hurricane season has been for most low latitude cruisers over the MDR to end up near the Bahamas.

[toad strangler]

06GFS Run

https://i.imgur.com/UHFNmI0.gif

The Bahamas really do not need this.

No they don't, but is way way too early to know for sure where it will be tracking to, what scares me is that the pattern this hurricane season has been for most low latitude cruisers over the MDR to end up near the Bahamas.

Well one doesn't make a pattern. Did I miss something? What else came over that far W? Maybe a couple waves?

[SFLcane]

Looks like the NHC updated @ 12z..

[canes92]

Hopefully he recurves. Bahamas don't need more damage, pretty sure many of the Bahamians are suffering from PTSD. I'd probably end up moving to Montana if I ever experienced something like that.

[DioBrando]

Hopefully he recurves. Bahamas don't need more damage, pretty sure many of the Bahamians are suffering from PTSD. I'd probably end up moving to Montana if I ever experienced something like that.

This is gonna be a boy storm? "He"?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hopefully he recurves. Bahamas don't need more damage, pretty sure many of the Bahamians are suffering from PTSD. I'd probably end up moving to Montana if I ever experienced something like that.

This is gonna be a boy storm? "He"?

Humberto's next up on the list.

[TheStormExpert]

06GFS Run

https://i.imgur.com/UHFNmI0.gif

The Bahamas really do not need this.

No they don't, but is way way too early to know for sure where it will be tracking to, what scares me is that the pattern this hurricane season has been for most low latitude cruisers over the MDR to end up near the Bahamas.

Yes, as TD-3 and other Invests were a precursor tracing near or over Florida and The Bahamas.

[DioBrando]

Hopefully he recurves. Bahamas don't need more damage, pretty sure many of the Bahamians are suffering from PTSD. I'd probably end up moving to Montana if I ever experienced something like that.

This is gonna be a boy storm? "He"?

Humberto's next up on the list.

Mamma mia!

[SFLcane]

GFS has a 985 mb cane south of PR.

[Highteeld]

12z GFS coming in a little bit slower and stronger with 94L before hitting Hispaniola

[toad strangler]

12z GFS trying to shred 94L on Dominican / Hati
That's a long putt though.

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS coming in a little bit slower and stronger with 94L before hitting Hispaniola

Hope this doesn’t end up like Dorian and trend north of the islands into the SEUS, have a long time to go to find out

[Bigwhitey]

Out to sea hopefully

[AutoPenalti]

GFS somehow keeps the vorticity intact after it slams Hispaniola...