WPAC: INVEST 98W

[Nancy Smar]

2019/9/12 10:02:33: [98W Formed] 98W INVEST 190912 0600 22.0N 140.0E WPAC 15 1002

[euro6208]

95W failed. This looks to be the more dominant of the two.

[Hayabusa]

Just one more and we're back to 99W

[Hayabusa]

95W failed. This looks to be the more dominant of the two.

GFS epically failed, include 97W too.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.1N
139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF A MONSOON GYRE. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PORTION OF A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT IN A 130039Z ASCAT-C PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEPARATE FROM THE BROADER MONSOON
GYRE AND CONSOLIDATE AND OTHERS INDICATING THAT IT WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION EVIDENT WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.1N 139.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON
GYRE. RECENT ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
EAST PORTION OF A TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT IN A 130039Z
ASCAT-C PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EASTWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR THIS DISTURBANCE, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATING THAT IT WILL SEPARATE FROM THE BROADER MONSOON GYRE AND
CONSOLIDATE AND OTHERS INDICATING THAT IT WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON GYRE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON GYRE CIRCULATION EVIDENT WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.7N 142.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140051Z ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ILL-DEFINED
REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS PROPAGATING
WESTWARD AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MONSOON GYRE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH (25-35KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ENABLING THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK OFF
FROM INVEST 95W AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE JAPANESE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 28.1N 142.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY
334 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED WITHIN
TROUGHING WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A 142314Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF WINDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. INVEST 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OFFSET TO THE EAST AND MARGINAL (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
30.3N 142.6E, IS EXTRATROPICAL AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.