EPAC: INVEST 93E

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2019092512, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1123W, 15,, DB

[wx98]

TWO gives this 30/30 odds as of 12z

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has changed little during the past
several hours. Gradual development of this system is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932019 09/25/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 31 31 30 28 28 29
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 31 31 30 28 28 29
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 15 19 28 36 34 46 42 50 42 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -6 -5 4 -6 -3 6 12 6
SHEAR DIR 26 36 68 83 106 126 121 104 84 78 60 56 60
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.2 27.8 28.1 28.2 29.5 29.8
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 147 145 146 142 145 147 142 145 148 160 161
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 5 4 3 4 6 8
700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 68 66 61 57 64 67 74 75 79 76
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -32 -32 -35 -35 -35 -24 -13 29 60 51 19 38 24
200 MB DIV 87 105 71 37 41 53 25 84 115 120 114 61 4
700-850 TADV -7 -8 -11 -11 -10 -6 3 6 16 2 -24 -15 -1
LAND (KM) 1064 1038 968 845 751 653 633 737 865 840 651 362 216
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.7 16.5 17.1 15.9 13.7 11.7 11.1 12.1 14.2 15.3
LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.6 112.3 111.0 109.7 108.6 107.6 106.0 103.8 102.1 101.3
STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 10 10 8 7 11 12 9 10 14 11 5
HEAT CONTENT 28 27 23 13 12 9 10 14 13 11 13 34 28

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -15. -22. -29. -33. -33.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 8. 8. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.1 112.5

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 09/25/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.38 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 2.7% 5.1%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.7%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 09/25/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is
possible while it moves eastward and then southeastward during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could still form
before it becomes absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the
coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Missed its boat.

A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower
activity. Although some slight development of the low is still
possible today, it is expected to become absorbed by a larger
weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico during the next couple
of days, and the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.