ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Monsoonjr99]

3rd storm already?


2005 again?

I hope not.

Not sure if you guys remember that year. Was wild...we had Dennis as a Cat 3 in july

Remember, 2005 had zero pre-season storms. On the other hand, 2012 and 2016 were both ahead of 2005 at the end of June. Early activity just doesn't say much about the season as a whole.

[Dean_175]

3rd storm already?


2005 again?

I hope not.

Not sure if you guys remember that year. Was wild...we had Dennis as a Cat 3 in july

Remember, 2005 had zero pre-season storms. On the other hand, 2012 and 2016 were both ahead of 2005 at the end of June. Early activity just doesn't say much about the season as a whole.

This exactly - two (or even 3) short lived weak storms that all formed from “not-entirely-tropical” origin does not say anything about the rest of the season. Sure, it uses up some names- but a weak low that just happens to spin up (if it does) into a subtropical storm in May does not really reflect the frequency and type of development you will see later in the year. These are classic May tropical/subtropical storms....weak , often short lived, and not of complete tropical origin.

Remember 2013 was not unusual so much in the number of storms but in the low number of significant storms. If we start getting cat4s and 5s in July like we did in 2005 then we can all talk more about it.

[EquusStorm]

I would really love for this to briefly be Cristobal just to break the record for most preseason storms since it's in the middle of nowhere but not much of a window of time to do that. It's ridiculous that THREE seasons in just the last eight years have had not just preseason storms but multiple preseason storms. Clearly 'hurricane season' is far more a concept than a rule.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1266507276896161794

[johngaltfla]

If it does develop, that will be absolutely incredible. And a not so good omen for the real season. Just wow.

[Aric Dunn]

The llc has moved into the divergent region of the uppper low.

Recent convection and a small feeder band indicating that it is very close to being a STS.

[Hammy]

Discussion didn't really say anything new, felt a bit like filler until new scatterometer data arrives as the current set is now well out of date given the organization trend.

[aspen]

Looks significantly better to my untrained eye. How likely is it that this becomes a STC within the next day given this trend?

[CyclonicFury]

If the circulation can tighten up overnight and convection persists, we'll probably have SS Cristobal tomorrow a whopping 86 days prior to its 2014 version.

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks significantly better to my untrained eye. How likely is it that this becomes a STC within the next day given this trend?

Yeah, woah, this tightened up fast. If it just separates a bit more from the ULL to its west it could easily be a STS.

[TheStormExpert]

Having three named storms prior to June 1st just doesn’t say much in regards to how to season unfolds in my opinion. Especially considering Arthur, Bertha, and potential-Cristobal were short lived.

Now if we get a rare hurricane in June below 30°N that’ll be impressive and alarming.

[aspen]

Having three named storms prior to June 1st just doesn’t say much in regards to how to season unfolds in my opinion. Especially considering Arthur, Bertha, and potential-Cristobal were short lived.

Now if we get a rare hurricane in June below 30°N that’ll be impressive and alarming.

Well then, let’s hope the Euro doesn’t get its way with that potential basin-crosser.

If Cristobal does form, it could hint that the subtropics might be quite active again this year, meaning we could end up with more total named storms than anticipated like 2019. I don’t think anyone expected all those little systems popping up all over the place last October.

If both the subtropics and the Gulf/western Caribbean see enhanced activity this year, perhaps there’s a shot of exhausting this season’s name list.

[Aric Dunn]

This system is almost certianly a STS at this point.. but without at least ASCAT .. given the nature... will never be upgraded. just because.

[EquusStorm]

Wow, yeah that ramped up pretty fast. Really want to see some records set here since it's not affecting much.

I'd not say even record preseason activity would indicate such a pace would continue; reminder that 2004 didn't get going til August rolled in and the first five storms of 2017 were the weakest first five storms in ACE on record, while the super early activity swarms of 1968 and 1997 fell apart and turned into a very benign season shortly after their spree of early activity. HOWEVER we're still probably on track for a highly active season, just not necessarily correlated to this May outbreak.

[Hammy]

Wow, yeah that ramped up pretty fast. Really want to see some records set here since it's not affecting much.

I'd not say even record preseason activity would indicate such a pace would continue; reminder that 2004 didn't get going til August rolled in and the first five storms of 2017 were the weakest first five storms in ACE on record, while the super early activity swarms of 1968 and 1997 fell apart and turned into a very benign season shortly after their spree of early activity. HOWEVER we're still probably on track for a highly active season, just not necessarily correlated to this May outbreak.

Interestingly both of those were El Nino years, which this year isn't expected to be.

[EquusStorm]

Such a combination of extreme early activity AND not an El Nino year seems a great way to get very close to the end of the name list. Makes me think we see Rene for the first time at the very least.

[Aric Dunn]

brand new ascat..

I would say that is pretty darn close for a STS .. if not already a STS>

[Ubuntwo]

brand new ascat..

I would say that is pretty darn close for a STS .. if not already a STS>

https://i.ibb.co/P57htSV/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/1KDnr7Y/Capture.png

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_swir_202005300255_23.25_31.75_-61.75_-47.75_swir1_hgwy_warn_latlon_ascata_ascatb_ascatc_weathernerds.png

Winds are well past the classification criteria... but it's still all tied up in that trough.

[Aric Dunn]

brand new ascat..

I would say that is pretty darn close for a STS .. if not already a STS>

https://i.ibb.co/P57htSV/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/1KDnr7Y/Capture.png

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_swir_202005300255_23.25_31.75_-61.75_-47.75_swir1_hgwy_warn_latlon_ascata_ascatb_ascatc_weathernerds.png

Winds are well past the classification criteria... but it's still all tied up in that trough.

thats what makes it a "Sub Tropical Storm" we needed a well defined circ..

[EquusStorm]

Reminds me a little of Arlene 2017. If we get a very well defined closed circ and convection doesn't die off up there, I'd say this is about the best shot at a third May storm we've ever had.