ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

94L INVEST 200616 0600 30.0N 78.0W ATL 30 1014

[NDG]

The non-tropical low has wrapped around some fairly unusual cool and dry air for this time of the year all the way down to south central FL, what a waste of an Invest declaration, IMO.

[cycloneye]

The non-tropical low has wrapped around some fairly unusual cool and dry air for this time of the year all the way down to south central FL, what a waste of an Invest declaration, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/78OqznH.gif

I was surprised when I saw the ATCF best track but maybe they know something more.

[NDG]

The non-tropical low has wrapped around some fairly unusual cool and dry air for this time of the year all the way down to south central FL, what a waste of an Invest declaration, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/78OqznH.gif

I was surprised when I saw the ATCF best track but maybe they know something more.

True, but is not like 10% is a lot

Based on the latest best track fix:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure area located about 150 miles
south-southeast of the North Carolina-South Carolina border is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of
southeastern and eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks,
and adjacent Atlantic waters. The low is moving slowly toward the
north-northeast, and a gradual turn toward the north is forecast
later today. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development through tonight when the low
should move inland over eastern North Carolina. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North
Carolina through Wednesday. For additional information, see products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[plasticup]

What are the criteria for declaring an Invest? I know it is not directly linked to the probability of development.

[USTropics]

What are the criteria for declaring an Invest? I know it is not directly linked to the probability of development.

There are none, it's really meant for internal use and not public use. Declaring this an invest essentially means the NHC has initiated protocols for additional products and communication between NOAA branches/outside agencies. Even though this has relatively ~10% chance of being named, this will allow for a suite of products to be initialized to gauge impacts tonight along coastal Carolina.

[TheStormExpert]

Next please!

[cycloneye]

Nothing to see here.

[storminabox]

Waste of a good number

[aspen]

10% chance of development, 100% chance of wasting our time.

[seahawkjd]

Nothing to see here.

I woke up this morning and made my plans based on torrential rain lol. Now the sun's out.

[AnnularCane]

Waste of a good number

94L should come back around again soon enough.

[toad strangler]

Waste of a good number

94L should come back around again soon enough.

Don't the numbers circulate between 90L and 99L and reset after 99???

[AutoPenalti]

Waste of a good number

94L should come back around again soon enough.

Don't the numbers circulate between 90L and 99L and reset after 99???

99L is our infamous long-tracker

[GeneratorPower]

94L should come back around again soon enough.

Don't the numbers circulate between 90L and 99L and reset after 99???

99L is our infamous long-tracker

And 96L is bound to be decapitated and smeared all over the map.

[cycloneye]

A non-tropical low pressure area located about 50 miles east of
Wilmington, North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over portions of southeastern and eastern North
Carolina, including the Outer Banks, as well as the adjacent
Atlantic waters. The low has resumed a northward motion, and it is
expected to move inland over North Carolina tonight. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development before the system moves inland. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North
Carolina through Wednesday. For additional information, see products
from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[emeraldislenc]

Heavy rain in Emerald Isle, NC. Flood warning issued for our area.

[Do_For_Love]

Heavy rain in Emerald Isle, NC. Flood warning issued for our area.

I think I saw on the weather this morning that eastern NC was looking at 5 inches or so of rain through thursday. Goes to show how these storms don't have to be super organized to have an impact. Be safe out there...