ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

96L INVEST 200628 1200 12.5N 36.5W ATL 20 1009

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120966

[aspen]

I highly doubt we’d get anything out of this, not even a weak TD, before it gets gutted by SAL or shear. Still, it’s impressive that we’re already watching AEWs for development this early in the year.

[Siker]

It's over waters <26C right now and will continue to be so for at least 24 hours, going off CDAS.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm surprised this gets invested now when there is no longer any model support. SHIPS guidance has shear increasing to near 50 kt in about 36 hours, so even a 20% development chance might be generous.

[NDG]

I'm surprised this gets invested now when there is no longer any model support. SHIPS guidance has shear increasing to near 50 kt in about 36 hours, so even a 20% development chance might be generous.

I was about to say the same thing, they are being too generous with a 20% chance when the usual over aggressive SHIPS model doesn’t even develops into a TD.

[TheStormExpert]

This came unexpected and out of nowhere. No model support whatsoever, next!

[Aric Dunn]

Nice well defined circ developed pretty quickly overnight with minimal convection. Now exposed and with dry air everywhere it will have a tough time. has a good moisture feed... but sustaining convection will be a problem.

[Aric Dunn]

Either way, this is a incredibly strong and well defined wave for this time of year.

[alan1961]

As Aric said it has a decent circulation on it but the dry air and shear awaits...

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next 2
to 3 days. After that time, environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Nuno]

Either way, this is a incredibly strong and well defined wave for this time of year.

The fact we're seeing such rigorous waves this far out in June is highly concerning going forward.

[Aric Dunn]

appears to be a second circ to the south the on the north side of the wave. a little convection is firing. The circ to the south has a decent buffer from the dry air.

worth watching.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

appears to be a second circ to the south the on the north side of the wave. a little convection is firing. The circ to the south has a decent buffer from the dry air.

worth watching.

https://i.ibb.co/0hHdypT/58906045.gif

Im wondering if any portion of this wave could actually end up keeping enough energy to traverse the lower latitudes and find more favorable conditions in the carib or southern gulf

[Nimbus]

They went with an invest at 36W rather than wait.
Its got some mid level rotation and low level convection and they are giving it up to 20% chance of development with no model support.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1277375673141587974

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Shower
and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has become
limited, and environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[plasticup]

What a funny little Invest. Looks nothing special, about to splat into a wall of dry shear. I wonder what they see that gives it 10%

[Aric Dunn]

http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1277375673141587974?s=20

That is exactly what was happenig at least pretty clear before the sun set. circ was pretty clear on the south portion of that convection.

[GCANE]

Yup, same old story.
A LL vort fractures off and heads NW (near 15N) while the wave moves due west.
Anticyclone over head on the LL vort of the wave (just below 10N) with some moderate convection and lightning.

[cycloneye]

Wow. the 06z best track changed to below 10n.

Location: 8.5°N 46.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM